Game Structures: In my opinion, there are two important factors to consider when it comes to game structures. First is that all of your NL games need to have a cap on them except for your largest regular game. For example, if your room runs $5/$10 on weekends, then the $1/$3 and the $2/$5 should be capped. If players can buy into the $1/$3 game for $1000, then why would they want to play $2/$5 or $5/$10. This is the number one reason that larger NL games rarely run in Reno.
The second factor is that the games need to have some space between them, or they won't run because they're essentially the same game. Some examples are Mountaineer offers $2/$4 and $3/$6 Limit, but $3/$6 almost never runs because they are basically the same game. Some of the Reno rooms offer a $2/$3 NL ($5 to go) that never runs because it's the same as $3/$5. Conversely, the Peppermill had $2/$4 and $4/$8 Limit that ran every day because they're not the same game.
Having said all that, I would have the NL & PL games with the following structures: $1/$1 ($40-$100), $1/$3 ($100-$400), $2/$5 ($400-$800), and maybe $5/$10 ($800-$1500 or uncapped). For games like PLO, there might be some slight tweaks, like changing the $1/$3 to $2/$3 ($5 to go) in order to help with rounding off the size of the pot.
For Limit games, I would use three different levels, but there is some different ones to choose from. It could be $3/$6, $6/$12, and $10/$20. Or, if I wanted to have a larger spread, it could be $3/$6, $7.50/$15 (using the Pink $2.50 chips that many casino use for Blackjack), and $15/$30. As I have said before, there would need to be some trial and error to see what the customers want.
There would also be a Kill for all Limit games. It would probably be a Half Kill, but could be a Full Kill if the table requests it.
Game Types: Obviously, No-Limit Hold'em would be the main game, along with some Limit Hold'em. Naturally, I would want to try promoting other games. I have found the best way to do this is to schedule games on various nights. Atlantis has done a good job with this concept. On Mondays they have $3/$6 HORSE, on Fridays $5/$10 NL, and on Saturdays $1/$2 PLO-8.
Generally, these games would be on the small side to encourage players to try them out. If the game takes off, then that game might pop-up on different nights, or even a bigger game could happen on that same night.
Rake: I know this isn't a common practice, but I feel that larger games should pay more in rake than smaller games. I know as a player, it's evil for me to think about rake. But as someone running a room, business is business.
For example, the standard Reno rake is $3 or $4 (plus the promo drop). So I might do $3 at the $1/$1 game (with .50 cent pieces), $4 at the $1/$3 game, and $5 for the $2/$5 and higher games. If the $1/$1 isn't generating enough rake, then I may have an automatic $2 on the Flop, and the 3rd dollar after the pot hits $30.
Straddle: For NL games, there would be a NL Straddle for up to 5 BB (up to $15 at $1/$3, for example). This would only be for UTG. I know the Mississippi Straddle or Button Straddle is popular for some players, but I feel that straddling on the Button is just too strong, and creates an imbalance in the game.
Cash Plays: Cash would not play at any game. It's too easy to sneak into a pocket, and it's very easy to hide behind chips. I often see players trying to fold up the $100 bills, and hide the fact that they have any at all. Plus, it's really hard to judge just how many $100 bills a player has. As long as the casino has enough chips, there is no reason to have Cash on the table.
Also, larger chips should only be allowed in certain games. The Green $25 chips would only be allowed on $1/$3 or larger. The Black $100 chips would only be allowed on the $2/$5 or larger.
Normally in $2/$5 games, the White $1 chips don't count except in units of $5. I've never understood the point of this rule. Since White chips are on the table, then why not use them? Why can't the preflop raise be $17, rather than $15 or $20? If a room doesn't want the White chips to count, then make it a $5/$5 game.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Hand Of The Day #72
$3/$6 Limit Hold'em - Eldorado - 04.21.11
It's a limp pot, including me with 8c 7h on the Button. Seven players saw a Flop of Td 9c 6d. The SB bet ($3). Two players called. The Hyjack raised ($6). He's a 30's guy who the biggest LAG at the table. I see no reason to slow-play, so I put the 3rd Bet ($9) with the Nut Straight. The SB 4-Bet ($12). UTG and Hyjack called. I cap it with the 5th Bet ($15). Everyone called.
Turn [Td 9c 6d] Ah: The SB bet ($6). UTG called, but Hyjack folded. I'm starting to think the SB might have the same hand as me, but I still raised ($12). The SB and UTG called.
River [Td 9c 6d Ah] Kc: The SB checked, but UTG bet ($6). This got my attention, as I sat up in my chair and started thinking. He's a 70's gentleman, and so far he seemed to be playing like a 70's gentleman. He was just calling the whole time, so why is he betting now? Well, the current Nuts is QJ, which was an Open-Ended and Two Overs on the Flop. I doubt I would have called all five bets on the Flop, but many $3/$6 players would. KK is another possibility. Its not uncommon for a player to limp preflop with an Overpair (dumb, but not uncommon). AK is also possible. Again, I wouldn't call 5 bets on the Flop, but this is a $3/$6 game.
Since I'm ahead of most of these hands, I finally decide to raise ($12). The SB quickly folded, but the UTG raised ($18). Even though I'm now getting around 20-1 on a call, I quickly fold my Straight face up. I just can't imagine a 70's gentleman 3-Betting on the River with anything but the Nuts. Surprisingly, he shows Ks Kc for a Set.
Just kidding. He showed Qc Jd for Broadway.
Limit poker is fun.
It's a limp pot, including me with 8c 7h on the Button. Seven players saw a Flop of Td 9c 6d. The SB bet ($3). Two players called. The Hyjack raised ($6). He's a 30's guy who the biggest LAG at the table. I see no reason to slow-play, so I put the 3rd Bet ($9) with the Nut Straight. The SB 4-Bet ($12). UTG and Hyjack called. I cap it with the 5th Bet ($15). Everyone called.
Turn [Td 9c 6d] Ah: The SB bet ($6). UTG called, but Hyjack folded. I'm starting to think the SB might have the same hand as me, but I still raised ($12). The SB and UTG called.
River [Td 9c 6d Ah] Kc: The SB checked, but UTG bet ($6). This got my attention, as I sat up in my chair and started thinking. He's a 70's gentleman, and so far he seemed to be playing like a 70's gentleman. He was just calling the whole time, so why is he betting now? Well, the current Nuts is QJ, which was an Open-Ended and Two Overs on the Flop. I doubt I would have called all five bets on the Flop, but many $3/$6 players would. KK is another possibility. Its not uncommon for a player to limp preflop with an Overpair (dumb, but not uncommon). AK is also possible. Again, I wouldn't call 5 bets on the Flop, but this is a $3/$6 game.
Since I'm ahead of most of these hands, I finally decide to raise ($12). The SB quickly folded, but the UTG raised ($18). Even though I'm now getting around 20-1 on a call, I quickly fold my Straight face up. I just can't imagine a 70's gentleman 3-Betting on the River with anything but the Nuts. Surprisingly, he shows Ks Kc for a Set.
Just kidding. He showed Qc Jd for Broadway.
Limit poker is fun.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
KK vs AA
As I've said before, I don't like the term "Running Bad" and I don't like to tell Bad Beat Stories. We all go through good times as well as bad streaks, and I give Bad Beats as well as get Bad Beats. It's part of the game that you need to get use to, and I think I have. As long as I'm not screwing up when the Luck is bad, then I know that I just need to be patient and grind it out.
Having said all that, it's been a bad two weeks. I have had one winning day during that time. It has been a strange journey of bizarre situations, ridiculous suck-outs, and sick coolers. I've even had my KK run into AA not once, not twice, but three times in 14 days. Normally, the ultimate cooler only happens to me like once in every nine to twelve months. So for this to happen three times in two weeks tells you exactly how things are going for me.
Here are the hands:
Sat 04/09 ~ Circus Circus ~ $2-$6 Spread Limit
I don't remember the specific amounts and details, but a Lady raised in Early Position. I 3-Bet with my KK in Late Position, and she just called. She bet the Flop, I raised, and she just called. On the Turn and River, she just checked and called my bet. I wasn't surprised that she had AA, but I was very grateful that she played them so passively.
Thur 04/21 ~ Eldorado ~ $65 Tournament Level 3 (100/200)
UTG raised to 600. He's a regular tourney grinder in Reno, and is on the nitty side. It folded to me in Mid position. I decide to just call with KK. I don't want to scare him off. If there were other callers or this was later in the tourney, then I would have 3-Bet. The only other caller was the SB.
Three players see a Flop of A T 8. They both check to me. Even though I hate the Ace, I fire out 1100. You would be surprised how many times that a bet will win me the pot in this situation. But the SB called, which I didn't like. The UTG also called, which set off a little warning light in my brain. I'm done with this hand, unless I improve.
Turn: [A T 8] K - They both checked to me. Well, my hand certainly improved, so I bet 1600. The SB called, but the UTG check-raised to 4000. That little warning light in my head just turned into a giant flashing neon sign. Unfortunately for me, I ignored that neon sign, and quickly shipped my chips into the middle. The SB folded A8 for Two Pair. The UTG called with his AA, and said this was a sick cooler. Naturally I bricked the River, and was left with 4700 or about half a starting stack.
It was a mistake for me to act quickly, but I'm not sure that I would have folded if I had thought it out. He couldn't have QJ for Broadway because he wouldn't have raised UTG nor he wouldn't have called the Flop with a Gutshot. AK is possible, but he probably would have bet the Flop rather than checking and over-calling. The most likely hand for him would be a Set, either AA or TT. Since I do beat one of those Sets, and I would still have over 20 BB left if I lose, I probably would have shipped it All-In.
The rest of the tournament went just as well as this hand, and I finished 11th out of 18.
Sat 04/23 ~ Peppermill ~ $6/$12 Limit
I'm UTG+1 and raise ($12) with KK. Two players called. The BB 3-Bet ($18). He's an older regular who's on the nitty side. I put out the 4th Bet ($24) to try to isolate with the BB. UTG+1 is the only one who sticks around. The BB then capped the betting ($30). At this point, I'm fairly positive that he has AA. If this was a NL game, I would fold. But in Limit Hold'em, you just don't fold KK preflop. I call, and so does UTG+1. The Flop was Q-high. The BB bet all three streets. I just called, and so did UTG+1 with AQ. Naturally, the BB had the AA, and I showed the KK.
It's frustrating, but I think I played it properly. In Limit Hold'em, you try to limit the amount you lose, and maximize the amount you win. By not raising on the Flop, Turn, or River, I did some damage control when I thought I was behind. After all, he could have also had KK.
Having said all that, it's been a bad two weeks. I have had one winning day during that time. It has been a strange journey of bizarre situations, ridiculous suck-outs, and sick coolers. I've even had my KK run into AA not once, not twice, but three times in 14 days. Normally, the ultimate cooler only happens to me like once in every nine to twelve months. So for this to happen three times in two weeks tells you exactly how things are going for me.
Here are the hands:
Sat 04/09 ~ Circus Circus ~ $2-$6 Spread Limit
I don't remember the specific amounts and details, but a Lady raised in Early Position. I 3-Bet with my KK in Late Position, and she just called. She bet the Flop, I raised, and she just called. On the Turn and River, she just checked and called my bet. I wasn't surprised that she had AA, but I was very grateful that she played them so passively.
Thur 04/21 ~ Eldorado ~ $65 Tournament Level 3 (100/200)
UTG raised to 600. He's a regular tourney grinder in Reno, and is on the nitty side. It folded to me in Mid position. I decide to just call with KK. I don't want to scare him off. If there were other callers or this was later in the tourney, then I would have 3-Bet. The only other caller was the SB.
Three players see a Flop of A T 8. They both check to me. Even though I hate the Ace, I fire out 1100. You would be surprised how many times that a bet will win me the pot in this situation. But the SB called, which I didn't like. The UTG also called, which set off a little warning light in my brain. I'm done with this hand, unless I improve.
Turn: [A T 8] K - They both checked to me. Well, my hand certainly improved, so I bet 1600. The SB called, but the UTG check-raised to 4000. That little warning light in my head just turned into a giant flashing neon sign. Unfortunately for me, I ignored that neon sign, and quickly shipped my chips into the middle. The SB folded A8 for Two Pair. The UTG called with his AA, and said this was a sick cooler. Naturally I bricked the River, and was left with 4700 or about half a starting stack.
It was a mistake for me to act quickly, but I'm not sure that I would have folded if I had thought it out. He couldn't have QJ for Broadway because he wouldn't have raised UTG nor he wouldn't have called the Flop with a Gutshot. AK is possible, but he probably would have bet the Flop rather than checking and over-calling. The most likely hand for him would be a Set, either AA or TT. Since I do beat one of those Sets, and I would still have over 20 BB left if I lose, I probably would have shipped it All-In.
The rest of the tournament went just as well as this hand, and I finished 11th out of 18.
Sat 04/23 ~ Peppermill ~ $6/$12 Limit
I'm UTG+1 and raise ($12) with KK. Two players called. The BB 3-Bet ($18). He's an older regular who's on the nitty side. I put out the 4th Bet ($24) to try to isolate with the BB. UTG+1 is the only one who sticks around. The BB then capped the betting ($30). At this point, I'm fairly positive that he has AA. If this was a NL game, I would fold. But in Limit Hold'em, you just don't fold KK preflop. I call, and so does UTG+1. The Flop was Q-high. The BB bet all three streets. I just called, and so did UTG+1 with AQ. Naturally, the BB had the AA, and I showed the KK.
It's frustrating, but I think I played it properly. In Limit Hold'em, you try to limit the amount you lose, and maximize the amount you win. By not raising on the Flop, Turn, or River, I did some damage control when I thought I was behind. After all, he could have also had KK.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Hand Of The Day #71
$3/$6 Limit Hold'em - Eldorado - 04.21.11
I raise UTG+1 ($5) with Kh Kc. Six players see a Flop of Qh 6s 4h. I bet ($3), and four players call.
Turn [Qh 6s 4h] 5c. It checks to me. I hate that card. There's now a 3-Card Straight out there, and that could give someone Two Pair. But I don't want to risk
a Free Card on that Board, so I bet ($6). All the players call, except the BB who check-raises ($12). My first instinct was that this screams of a Straight. But this guy is the biggest LAG at the table. It's possible that he has Two Pair. I make the call, and so does everyone else.
River [Qh 6s 4h 5c] 5d. BB bet ($6). I now have Two Pair, so I make the crying call. It folds to the Button, who raises ($12). The BB thinks for a moment, and calls. I now know my hand is shit, so I quickly fold. Button show 5h 5s for the Backdoor Quads. In disgust, the BB shows 3c 2d for the bottom end of the Straight.
Maybe I'm just being results oriented, but I played this hand horribly bad on the Turn & River. I already said that I hated the 5 on the Turn because there was still five players with live hands. I think the best thing for me to do since I was out of position (UTG+1) was to go into Check/Call mode. I could have seen what everyone else did, and then make my decisions with more information.
I lost 2-3 Big Bets because of how I played this hand, and that's a big mistake in Limit Poker. Granted, in $3/$6 Limit, 2-3 Big Bets isn't much money. But when I'm playing in the $15/$30 or $20/$40 game at the Peppemill, that's around $100.
I raise UTG+1 ($5) with Kh Kc. Six players see a Flop of Qh 6s 4h. I bet ($3), and four players call.
Turn [Qh 6s 4h] 5c. It checks to me. I hate that card. There's now a 3-Card Straight out there, and that could give someone Two Pair. But I don't want to risk
a Free Card on that Board, so I bet ($6). All the players call, except the BB who check-raises ($12). My first instinct was that this screams of a Straight. But this guy is the biggest LAG at the table. It's possible that he has Two Pair. I make the call, and so does everyone else.
River [Qh 6s 4h 5c] 5d. BB bet ($6). I now have Two Pair, so I make the crying call. It folds to the Button, who raises ($12). The BB thinks for a moment, and calls. I now know my hand is shit, so I quickly fold. Button show 5h 5s for the Backdoor Quads. In disgust, the BB shows 3c 2d for the bottom end of the Straight.
Maybe I'm just being results oriented, but I played this hand horribly bad on the Turn & River. I already said that I hated the 5 on the Turn because there was still five players with live hands. I think the best thing for me to do since I was out of position (UTG+1) was to go into Check/Call mode. I could have seen what everyone else did, and then make my decisions with more information.
I lost 2-3 Big Bets because of how I played this hand, and that's a big mistake in Limit Poker. Granted, in $3/$6 Limit, 2-3 Big Bets isn't much money. But when I'm playing in the $15/$30 or $20/$40 game at the Peppemill, that's around $100.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Rants & Raves: It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)
There's an old saying, "Las Vegas is built on implosions." They tear down the old, and build something new. The Dunes was imploded, and the Bellagio was built in it's place. The Stardust was imploded, and the Echelon was built in it's place. (err, nevermind)
On Friday 04/15, the poker world had it's own implosion of the nuclear variety. The US Dept of Justice unsealed 11 indictments against individuals who are running the largest online poker sites that service American players. The charges involve running a online gambling site, and money laundering. The DOJ also started to shut down websites, confiscate IP address that they use, and freeze various bank accounts that sites use. The sites have cutoff Real Money games for US customers, and have stopped all cashouts until further notice.
The story will continue to develop over the next few days and weeks. I've heard that the DOJ wants to shut down Stars and Tilt worldwide. Although, I don't know how they can shut down international companies that are licensed and regulated in other countries. There are some small sites that I think are still open for business, like Cake and Bodog. I'm assuming they're next. There also may be more indictments in the future. None of Team Full Tilt were named, but it's widely assumed that they have some ownership of Full Tilt.
While this certainly was a bombshell, it wasn't a "Bolt from the Blue". The DOJ has been tracking the payment processors and freezing bank accounts for almost two years. Here are three stories about this. Story 1 - Story 2 - Story 3. It was assumed that the events on Friday could happen, but it was not very likely to ever happen.
So how does this affect me directly? Well, not at all. As I've mentioned before, I don't play online poker because it bores the crap out of me. I have around $400 between Stars and Cake, and I have opened up Stars once since I moved out to Reno six months ago. If I ever lost that money, I wouldn't have reloaded, so I'm certainly not worried about it now.
But the effect on other players is much more significant. Someone I played with last night said one of his buddies has $250k on Full Tilt (He played $200-$500 Heads-Up SNGs). Not only do thousands of players have thousands of dollars tied up on Stars and Tilt, but they now have to find some way to pay their bills.
So does this mean there will be a "Brick & Mortar" poker boom? Maybe. I could certainly see some single 21 yr olds moving to a casino town like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, or LA. But a Kid who's used to multi-tabling $5/$10 to $25/$50 6-max will have trouble adjusting to one full table of $2/$5 or $5/$10, and that's only if they have enough money offline to play that high.
One part of Live Poker that will be affected is the Tournament Trail, but I'm not sure how. Online tournament grinders are more likely to start visiting more tournament series. But players who were relying on money from Stars and Tilt don't have that safety net in the form of bonuses and buy-ins. They might not be able to afford playing in larger buy-in tournaments, so they might start playing more preliminary events and satellites, or even just going to smaller tournament series (Hello, H P T). Of course, they could always just move to Canada or Europe, and continue to grind online, even though there will be much less money to win without the US market.
One tournament that will certainly be affected is the WSOP Main Event. On Thursday, it was expected that this year's total would be over 7500 players. Today, I've been hearing wild guesses between 4000 - 5500, since players can't satellite in for just $5 anymore. If the attendance will drop that significantly, is it possible that the WSOP might consider cutting back the schedule of the Main Event to just two starting days? If they only get 4500 players, then why bother having four Day 1 and two Day 2?
Many other parts of the Poker World will be affected by what happened on Friday, mostly because Stars and Tilt were investing money in various forms of marketing. Most notable will be Poker on TV. The NAPT was to start airing on ESPN tomorrow night, and I don't know if that will happen now. High Stakes Poker and Poker After Dark are currently running new shows, and The Big Game has already taped shows that were to start running in June. All of these are paid for by Stars and Tilt. How many of them will actually make it to air is anyone's guess.
Another aspect is the Poker Media, which gets a lot of revenue from poker sites. How many magazines / websites like Card Player and Bluff will be able to continue without that money? Poker podcasts like Ante-Up and The 2+2 Pokercast are sponsored by Stars, so will they still be around? Poker Road was barely hanging on before, and I don't expect them to last past the WSOP.
All other poker businesses will feel the effects, as well. What will happen to Card Runners, Dueces Cracked, and the other training sites? How about a staking business like Sheets & Bax? Yes, they do staking of live players, like WSOP champ Joe Cada, but a majority of their staking comes from online. If most of their money is tied up online, are they willing to increase their risk by staking more live players, or will they just call it quits?
However, after the implosion comes the rebuilding. And that's where Congress comes in to the picture. It's widely assumed that there will be Federal Regulation someday, but the question is When? Personally, I thought that nothing would happen until at least 2013 because of the Presidential Election in 2012. But if there is a super conservative President elected, then it may be much longer than that.
But with the events of this weekend, I'm curious to see if Congress will move sooner. If Congress does try to get things moving, then it will have to be this year because 2012 will be all about the Election. In order for something to happen this year, I would guess that there needs to be significant movement before Memorial Day.
Keep in mind, everything that I said and speculated about could change over the next few days, weeks, or months. Either way, I'm gonna sit back and watch the poker world change around me. It's gonna be a hell of a ride.
On Friday 04/15, the poker world had it's own implosion of the nuclear variety. The US Dept of Justice unsealed 11 indictments against individuals who are running the largest online poker sites that service American players. The charges involve running a online gambling site, and money laundering. The DOJ also started to shut down websites, confiscate IP address that they use, and freeze various bank accounts that sites use. The sites have cutoff Real Money games for US customers, and have stopped all cashouts until further notice.
The story will continue to develop over the next few days and weeks. I've heard that the DOJ wants to shut down Stars and Tilt worldwide. Although, I don't know how they can shut down international companies that are licensed and regulated in other countries. There are some small sites that I think are still open for business, like Cake and Bodog. I'm assuming they're next. There also may be more indictments in the future. None of Team Full Tilt were named, but it's widely assumed that they have some ownership of Full Tilt.
While this certainly was a bombshell, it wasn't a "Bolt from the Blue". The DOJ has been tracking the payment processors and freezing bank accounts for almost two years. Here are three stories about this. Story 1 - Story 2 - Story 3. It was assumed that the events on Friday could happen, but it was not very likely to ever happen.
So how does this affect me directly? Well, not at all. As I've mentioned before, I don't play online poker because it bores the crap out of me. I have around $400 between Stars and Cake, and I have opened up Stars once since I moved out to Reno six months ago. If I ever lost that money, I wouldn't have reloaded, so I'm certainly not worried about it now.
But the effect on other players is much more significant. Someone I played with last night said one of his buddies has $250k on Full Tilt (He played $200-$500 Heads-Up SNGs). Not only do thousands of players have thousands of dollars tied up on Stars and Tilt, but they now have to find some way to pay their bills.
So does this mean there will be a "Brick & Mortar" poker boom? Maybe. I could certainly see some single 21 yr olds moving to a casino town like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, or LA. But a Kid who's used to multi-tabling $5/$10 to $25/$50 6-max will have trouble adjusting to one full table of $2/$5 or $5/$10, and that's only if they have enough money offline to play that high.
One part of Live Poker that will be affected is the Tournament Trail, but I'm not sure how. Online tournament grinders are more likely to start visiting more tournament series. But players who were relying on money from Stars and Tilt don't have that safety net in the form of bonuses and buy-ins. They might not be able to afford playing in larger buy-in tournaments, so they might start playing more preliminary events and satellites, or even just going to smaller tournament series (Hello, H P T). Of course, they could always just move to Canada or Europe, and continue to grind online, even though there will be much less money to win without the US market.
One tournament that will certainly be affected is the WSOP Main Event. On Thursday, it was expected that this year's total would be over 7500 players. Today, I've been hearing wild guesses between 4000 - 5500, since players can't satellite in for just $5 anymore. If the attendance will drop that significantly, is it possible that the WSOP might consider cutting back the schedule of the Main Event to just two starting days? If they only get 4500 players, then why bother having four Day 1 and two Day 2?
Many other parts of the Poker World will be affected by what happened on Friday, mostly because Stars and Tilt were investing money in various forms of marketing. Most notable will be Poker on TV. The NAPT was to start airing on ESPN tomorrow night, and I don't know if that will happen now. High Stakes Poker and Poker After Dark are currently running new shows, and The Big Game has already taped shows that were to start running in June. All of these are paid for by Stars and Tilt. How many of them will actually make it to air is anyone's guess.
Another aspect is the Poker Media, which gets a lot of revenue from poker sites. How many magazines / websites like Card Player and Bluff will be able to continue without that money? Poker podcasts like Ante-Up and The 2+2 Pokercast are sponsored by Stars, so will they still be around? Poker Road was barely hanging on before, and I don't expect them to last past the WSOP.
All other poker businesses will feel the effects, as well. What will happen to Card Runners, Dueces Cracked, and the other training sites? How about a staking business like Sheets & Bax? Yes, they do staking of live players, like WSOP champ Joe Cada, but a majority of their staking comes from online. If most of their money is tied up online, are they willing to increase their risk by staking more live players, or will they just call it quits?
However, after the implosion comes the rebuilding. And that's where Congress comes in to the picture. It's widely assumed that there will be Federal Regulation someday, but the question is When? Personally, I thought that nothing would happen until at least 2013 because of the Presidential Election in 2012. But if there is a super conservative President elected, then it may be much longer than that.
But with the events of this weekend, I'm curious to see if Congress will move sooner. If Congress does try to get things moving, then it will have to be this year because 2012 will be all about the Election. In order for something to happen this year, I would guess that there needs to be significant movement before Memorial Day.
Keep in mind, everything that I said and speculated about could change over the next few days, weeks, or months. Either way, I'm gonna sit back and watch the poker world change around me. It's gonna be a hell of a ride.
Monday, April 11, 2011
The Golden Sombrero
I played four daily tournaments on Sunday. Here's what happened.
Grand Sierra 9am $20 (1000 chips) - This is a satellite for the 11am $60 tournament. Why do they run a satellite for a $60 tournament? I don't know, but they do it every morning. Since I'm gonna play in the 11am tourney, I might as well play in this one.
Only nine players for this one, which meant three seats given out. I got off to a good start by winning some small pots. I focused on playing good Satellite poker: keeping my VPIP low, not calling raises out of position, and trying to play risk-free. It was going well as I slowly built my stack and my table image. With 5-6 players left, I had gotten my stack up to near 4000 chips, with only 9000 in play. I downshifted into Lockdown Mode, and waited for the satellite to end so I could collect my seat.
But the shortstack kept doubling up, mostly because the other players wanted to play Showdown Poker, instead of playing Satellite Poker. Anytime this happens in one of these tournaments, it comes back to bit me in the ass, and this time was no exception.
As the Blinds got bigger, I had to call some All-Ins when I was in the BB. First one was a 350 All-In when my BB was 200. I had 65o, and he won with AK. Later on the Bubble, the same players shipped it for 700. I'm the BB (400) and called with A9c. He had KQo and won.
This got me down to being one of the shortstacks. I pushed on the Button for 1075 with A8o in the 200/400 level. The SB called with QTo. He's now the Big Stack, and likes to call. I flopped an A, but the Turn and River were Q T. I finished as Bubble Boy in 4th place. It was very frustrating, as I really can't think of any mistake that I made.
Grand Sierra 11am $60 (4000 chips) - In the 100/200/25 level, it folded to me in the SB. I limped with A8o. The BB raised to 800, and I called. Flop was A 8 5. I checked my Top Two Pair, and he bet 600. I just called, planning on check-raising the Turn. Turn [A 8 5] 9. I check, he goes All-In, and I call. He shows A9, and I miss my two-outer on the River. We count down the stacks, and he had me covered by about 500. I finish 12th out of 13 players.
Peppermill 1pm $65 (4500 chips) - The Peppermill 1pm on Sunday is usually the largest field for a daily tournament in Reno, and this one was no exception. There was 67 players, and I got seated at a table in the Cash game area. Things were going along smoothly until this hand in the 150/300/25 level...
UTG+1 min-raised (600). It folded around to me in the BB. I called with Ks 3d, and I checked in the dark. Flop was As 9s 4s. He bet 800, and I decided to check-raise to 2500 with my Nut Flush Draw. He insta-shipped All-In for around 4300. I would love to give a detailed explanation as to why I check-raised so large, but I can't. It was a very stupid thing to do. Because of my oversized raise, I priced myself into calling. He has AKo, and I missed my Flush Draw.
This left me with under 1000 chips. I did manage to work the shortstack for a while, and got up to over 4000. But with the levels being 15 minutes long, I just wasn't able to stay ahead of the structure. I finished around 40th place.
Peppermill 6:30pm $95 Cash Me Out (8500 chips) - This one only had 23 players, which is the smallest Cash Me Out tournament that I've played in. Once again things were going very well, until this hand in the 500/1000/100 level...
There were 3-4 limpers, which was surprising at this stage of the tournament. I'm the BB with Q5d. I have a nice chip stack, but I've been card dead lately and doing a lot of folding. This seemed like a good opportunity to do a Squeeze Play, so I raised to 6k. The UTG quickly went All-In for 7100 more. He's a Cash game player who's all been playing quite a few hands. It folds around to me. With all the limpers and antes, I'm getting close to 3-1 on this call. So if I'm against a hand like AK, it's the correct call. After thinking for a bit, I made the crying call. The good news was that he had AK, but the bad news was that I totally airballed the Board. This left me with just under 10k chips.
Fortunately, it didn't take long after that hand to get to the Final Table, where I had around 9300 chips. Normally, this is a good thing in a Cash Me Out tournament. But with the small field, the tournament chips won't be converted into cash chips until we get to six handed. I'm not the shortest stack, but I got some work to do. I did manage to win the blinds in one or two hands. I also made a successful Squeeze Play with 44 in the BB. I got up to 14200 chips in the 700/1500/200 level when this hand happened...
UTG+2 goes All-In for around 17k. The Hyjack (the AK guy from before) also goes All-In for more. I'm in the Cutoff, and it takes me about 0.0483 seconds to get my chips in the middle with KK. The Blinds fold. UTG+2 has JJ, and the Hyjack has QQ. A truly nasty trainwreck for any Final Table. Surprisingly, the Poker Gods decided not to screw me as my KK held for the big triple-up to give me a real chip stack. The Hyjack won the rather small side pot.
It didn't take much longer to get down to the Final Six. I was second in chips with 43700, which was converted to $315. The Chip Leader had around $450. The next stack was around $250, and the last three were under $100. Surprisingly, nobody cashed out, and there was an extra $400 to battle over. We could start talking Chop when we got to five players.
With three short stacks, my focus was to go into Lockdown Mode, and wait for the shortstacks to get knocked out. It went well for me, as I picked up AA and won a $100 on the Flop when another big stack didn't believe me. It took some time, but things went according to plan as the three shortstacks finally got knocked out. The three of us were thinking the same thing, as we all agreed to chop right away. I was the Chip Leader, but there was only about $50-$75 difference between our stacks, so we chopped the $400 evenly. I walked out of the Peppermill Poker Room with $555 after the Dealer's tip.
Overall, it was frustrating day of tournament poker. Before the final tournament, I really thought I was gonna get the Golden Sombrero today. Instead, I go home up $315 and get another notch in the Win column. This just goes to prove my theory about how these daily tournaments are profitable when played in volume. Every time I have played multiple tournaments on a Sunday, I have finished the day with a profit.
Grand Sierra 9am $20 (1000 chips) - This is a satellite for the 11am $60 tournament. Why do they run a satellite for a $60 tournament? I don't know, but they do it every morning. Since I'm gonna play in the 11am tourney, I might as well play in this one.
Only nine players for this one, which meant three seats given out. I got off to a good start by winning some small pots. I focused on playing good Satellite poker: keeping my VPIP low, not calling raises out of position, and trying to play risk-free. It was going well as I slowly built my stack and my table image. With 5-6 players left, I had gotten my stack up to near 4000 chips, with only 9000 in play. I downshifted into Lockdown Mode, and waited for the satellite to end so I could collect my seat.
But the shortstack kept doubling up, mostly because the other players wanted to play Showdown Poker, instead of playing Satellite Poker. Anytime this happens in one of these tournaments, it comes back to bit me in the ass, and this time was no exception.
As the Blinds got bigger, I had to call some All-Ins when I was in the BB. First one was a 350 All-In when my BB was 200. I had 65o, and he won with AK. Later on the Bubble, the same players shipped it for 700. I'm the BB (400) and called with A9c. He had KQo and won.
This got me down to being one of the shortstacks. I pushed on the Button for 1075 with A8o in the 200/400 level. The SB called with QTo. He's now the Big Stack, and likes to call. I flopped an A, but the Turn and River were Q T. I finished as Bubble Boy in 4th place. It was very frustrating, as I really can't think of any mistake that I made.
Grand Sierra 11am $60 (4000 chips) - In the 100/200/25 level, it folded to me in the SB. I limped with A8o. The BB raised to 800, and I called. Flop was A 8 5. I checked my Top Two Pair, and he bet 600. I just called, planning on check-raising the Turn. Turn [A 8 5] 9. I check, he goes All-In, and I call. He shows A9, and I miss my two-outer on the River. We count down the stacks, and he had me covered by about 500. I finish 12th out of 13 players.
Peppermill 1pm $65 (4500 chips) - The Peppermill 1pm on Sunday is usually the largest field for a daily tournament in Reno, and this one was no exception. There was 67 players, and I got seated at a table in the Cash game area. Things were going along smoothly until this hand in the 150/300/25 level...
UTG+1 min-raised (600). It folded around to me in the BB. I called with Ks 3d, and I checked in the dark. Flop was As 9s 4s. He bet 800, and I decided to check-raise to 2500 with my Nut Flush Draw. He insta-shipped All-In for around 4300. I would love to give a detailed explanation as to why I check-raised so large, but I can't. It was a very stupid thing to do. Because of my oversized raise, I priced myself into calling. He has AKo, and I missed my Flush Draw.
This left me with under 1000 chips. I did manage to work the shortstack for a while, and got up to over 4000. But with the levels being 15 minutes long, I just wasn't able to stay ahead of the structure. I finished around 40th place.
Peppermill 6:30pm $95 Cash Me Out (8500 chips) - This one only had 23 players, which is the smallest Cash Me Out tournament that I've played in. Once again things were going very well, until this hand in the 500/1000/100 level...
There were 3-4 limpers, which was surprising at this stage of the tournament. I'm the BB with Q5d. I have a nice chip stack, but I've been card dead lately and doing a lot of folding. This seemed like a good opportunity to do a Squeeze Play, so I raised to 6k. The UTG quickly went All-In for 7100 more. He's a Cash game player who's all been playing quite a few hands. It folds around to me. With all the limpers and antes, I'm getting close to 3-1 on this call. So if I'm against a hand like AK, it's the correct call. After thinking for a bit, I made the crying call. The good news was that he had AK, but the bad news was that I totally airballed the Board. This left me with just under 10k chips.
Fortunately, it didn't take long after that hand to get to the Final Table, where I had around 9300 chips. Normally, this is a good thing in a Cash Me Out tournament. But with the small field, the tournament chips won't be converted into cash chips until we get to six handed. I'm not the shortest stack, but I got some work to do. I did manage to win the blinds in one or two hands. I also made a successful Squeeze Play with 44 in the BB. I got up to 14200 chips in the 700/1500/200 level when this hand happened...
UTG+2 goes All-In for around 17k. The Hyjack (the AK guy from before) also goes All-In for more. I'm in the Cutoff, and it takes me about 0.0483 seconds to get my chips in the middle with KK. The Blinds fold. UTG+2 has JJ, and the Hyjack has QQ. A truly nasty trainwreck for any Final Table. Surprisingly, the Poker Gods decided not to screw me as my KK held for the big triple-up to give me a real chip stack. The Hyjack won the rather small side pot.
It didn't take much longer to get down to the Final Six. I was second in chips with 43700, which was converted to $315. The Chip Leader had around $450. The next stack was around $250, and the last three were under $100. Surprisingly, nobody cashed out, and there was an extra $400 to battle over. We could start talking Chop when we got to five players.
With three short stacks, my focus was to go into Lockdown Mode, and wait for the shortstacks to get knocked out. It went well for me, as I picked up AA and won a $100 on the Flop when another big stack didn't believe me. It took some time, but things went according to plan as the three shortstacks finally got knocked out. The three of us were thinking the same thing, as we all agreed to chop right away. I was the Chip Leader, but there was only about $50-$75 difference between our stacks, so we chopped the $400 evenly. I walked out of the Peppermill Poker Room with $555 after the Dealer's tip.
Overall, it was frustrating day of tournament poker. Before the final tournament, I really thought I was gonna get the Golden Sombrero today. Instead, I go home up $315 and get another notch in the Win column. This just goes to prove my theory about how these daily tournaments are profitable when played in volume. Every time I have played multiple tournaments on a Sunday, I have finished the day with a profit.
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Win More Or Win More Often
I've heard various poker players not want to sign-up for a daily tourney because they say there isn't enough players to make it worthwhile. I tell them that it's easier to win a smaller tournament. They usually say, "Yeah, but whatever."
So this got me thinking... Is it better to win more in a larger field tournament, or win more often in small field tournaments?
I decided to crack open my database, and crunch some numbers. In order to get a large sample size, I looked at all tournaments back to 2007, over three years, which is 306 tournaments. Here are some stats, broken down by entrants.
20 Players Or Less
Tourneys: 94
Cashes: 32 (34%)
Wins/Chops: 19 (20.2%)
ROI: 49.79%
21-40 Players
Tourneys:152
Cashes: 26 (17%)
Wins/Chops: 10 (6.6%)
ROI: 29.60%
41 Players Or More
Tourneys: 60
Cashes: 9 (15%)
Wins/Chops: 3 (5%)
ROI: -26.43%
I'm a little surprised by some these numbers. Obviously, the Cash% and Win% would be higher in a smaller field. I expected the ROIs to be similar, but the fact that they are so far apart is unexpected.
I think one reason for this is my larger buy-in events. I've played 20 tournaments that were over $200 and over 20 players, and I've only cashed in one of them for $802. A bigger score in one of these tournaments would probably put my ROI into the profit range.
Another reason could be that my tournament game needs some work in larger field events. I've played in 20 CPMG tourneys over 40 players since 2007, and have just one chop and a 3rd place. Twenty tourneys isn't a large sample size, but I should have better results than these.
So to answer the original question, is it better to win more, or win more often? Before I looked at the numbers, my answer was Both. Naturally, you want to hit the Big Score in a larger field tournament. But cashing more regularly in smaller tournaments helps reduce the variance of being a tourney player. I still think that's the answer, but it also depends on your style and you success in the different field sizes.
So this got me thinking... Is it better to win more in a larger field tournament, or win more often in small field tournaments?
I decided to crack open my database, and crunch some numbers. In order to get a large sample size, I looked at all tournaments back to 2007, over three years, which is 306 tournaments. Here are some stats, broken down by entrants.
20 Players Or Less
Tourneys: 94
Cashes: 32 (34%)
Wins/Chops: 19 (20.2%)
ROI: 49.79%
21-40 Players
Tourneys:152
Cashes: 26 (17%)
Wins/Chops: 10 (6.6%)
ROI: 29.60%
41 Players Or More
Tourneys: 60
Cashes: 9 (15%)
Wins/Chops: 3 (5%)
ROI: -26.43%
I'm a little surprised by some these numbers. Obviously, the Cash% and Win% would be higher in a smaller field. I expected the ROIs to be similar, but the fact that they are so far apart is unexpected.
I think one reason for this is my larger buy-in events. I've played 20 tournaments that were over $200 and over 20 players, and I've only cashed in one of them for $802. A bigger score in one of these tournaments would probably put my ROI into the profit range.
Another reason could be that my tournament game needs some work in larger field events. I've played in 20 CPMG tourneys over 40 players since 2007, and have just one chop and a 3rd place. Twenty tourneys isn't a large sample size, but I should have better results than these.
So to answer the original question, is it better to win more, or win more often? Before I looked at the numbers, my answer was Both. Naturally, you want to hit the Big Score in a larger field tournament. But cashing more regularly in smaller tournaments helps reduce the variance of being a tourney player. I still think that's the answer, but it also depends on your style and you success in the different field sizes.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Hand Of The Day #70 (LIVE)
I'm currently sitting at the Eldorado in a $1/$2 NL game. In a previous hand, a 50's Asian gentleman just limped UTG. The next player, a Kid, raised to $5. Bunch of callers, including me in the BB. However, the Asian gentleman folded for the extra $3.
The rest of the hand doesn't matter.
After the hand, I asked the 50's gentleman why he folded. He said that he didn't want to call a raise with that hand (which he limped from UTG).
That is the definition of a Super Nit.
The rest of the hand doesn't matter.
After the hand, I asked the 50's gentleman why he folded. He said that he didn't want to call a raise with that hand (which he limped from UTG).
That is the definition of a Super Nit.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
April News & Notes
- March was a bad month for me. With all the tournaments in town, that meant bigger games, which also meant bigger swings. You already know about the $1080 tournament, and the $600 I lost playing PLO-8. I dropped $800 in a $3/$5 session the night before the tournament, and $400 at $2/$3 right after I busted out of the tournament.
I've also been playing way too much in the Pit, especially Video Poker. That's something that I need to stop doing (again). I haven't played in the Pit in a week.
- With the run of tournaments in town, I've been playing more No Limit cash games with mixed results. I still think the NL games in this town aren't good, so I'm gonna switch back to Limit as my primary game of choice. I would like to play more regularly in the Big Limit game at the Peppermill. I've only sat down twice, but I've won both times (+$543 total).
- I mentioned previously about a rumor of a new Peppermill Poker Room. Well, construction is underway. For those familiar with the Peppermill, it will where the Saucey's Smokehouse used to be.
The new room will have 19 tables, which is two more than they have now. But if you're gonna add tables, then why not make it 20 tables, instead of 19?
They say the new room will be open in May. I'm assuming that they want it open it up for the Nevada State Poker Championship, which is the Peppermill's biggest tournament series of the year, especially since the Heartland Poker Tour will be here this year.
I have only two requests for the new room. First, can there be a ban on Neon in the room? Second, the current room has three screens for the Tournament Timer, but none of them are in the Tournament area. Yes, this seems weird, but it's true. All three screens are in the Cash area, and only one of them can be seen from parts of the Tournament area. Is it possible to have a Tournament Timer that is actually in the Tournament area?
- I booked a room for the Vegas trip. I'll be at the Rio from June 12 - 21, and I got five of the nine nights comped. I'm not sure if anyone I know will be going from Cleveland, as people's plans seems to be in flux, but it will be a blast either way.
I've also been playing way too much in the Pit, especially Video Poker. That's something that I need to stop doing (again). I haven't played in the Pit in a week.
- With the run of tournaments in town, I've been playing more No Limit cash games with mixed results. I still think the NL games in this town aren't good, so I'm gonna switch back to Limit as my primary game of choice. I would like to play more regularly in the Big Limit game at the Peppermill. I've only sat down twice, but I've won both times (+$543 total).
- I mentioned previously about a rumor of a new Peppermill Poker Room. Well, construction is underway. For those familiar with the Peppermill, it will where the Saucey's Smokehouse used to be.
The new room will have 19 tables, which is two more than they have now. But if you're gonna add tables, then why not make it 20 tables, instead of 19?
They say the new room will be open in May. I'm assuming that they want it open it up for the Nevada State Poker Championship, which is the Peppermill's biggest tournament series of the year, especially since the Heartland Poker Tour will be here this year.
I have only two requests for the new room. First, can there be a ban on Neon in the room? Second, the current room has three screens for the Tournament Timer, but none of them are in the Tournament area. Yes, this seems weird, but it's true. All three screens are in the Cash area, and only one of them can be seen from parts of the Tournament area. Is it possible to have a Tournament Timer that is actually in the Tournament area?
- I booked a room for the Vegas trip. I'll be at the Rio from June 12 - 21, and I got five of the nine nights comped. I'm not sure if anyone I know will be going from Cleveland, as people's plans seems to be in flux, but it will be a blast either way.
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