As a mailman, I listen to various podcasts to pass the time while I'm delivering my route, including some poker podcasts. They often mention how many WSOP Bracelets and Final Tables a players has. But for older players, many of those successes came before the poker boom, which started with Chris Moneymaker's win of the 2003 Main Event.
To me, since the poker world changed in 2003, there should be WSOP stats that start after the poker boom. I've had this thought for a few years now, but have never found those stats.
So over the summer, I started playing around with this idea in my spare time. I ended up making a huge spreadsheat with results over the last 10 years, all the way back to the 2003 Main Event. I included all bracelet events except for the WSOP Circuit National Championship and the Casino Employees event. The National Championship is relatively new, and really has nothing to do with the WSOP. And with apologies to Chad Holloway, nobody of any significant has done anything in the Casino Employees event.
I decided to jot down all 1st and 2nd places, along with any 3rd places and Final Tables of player names that I recognize. Why 1st, 2nd, and 3rd? I don't know; Gold, Silver, and Bronze I guess. Here are what I determined to be a Final Table, which I believe is the same as the WSOP uses.
Showing posts with label Stat Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stat Analysis. Show all posts
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated
~ Yes, I'm still here. I've been saying for the past six months or so that I'm losing interest in blogging, and that I'll probably be posting less. I've have over 400 posts on this blog, and I highly doubt I will get to #500. I have no plans to close the blog, but posts will only come along when I feel like it.
~ Now for an update on how my year has been. First of all, I'm trying to take my recreational play more seriously. I've set a goal this year of $10k profit. That is far ahead of anything I've made in the past. It may seem like a big number, but it's only $2500 every 3 months or roughly $835 each month. That doesn't seem too unreasonable.
I'm also trying to follow stricter bankroll requirements, rather than just playing whatever I feel like. I started out just playing $1/$2 and small tournaments under $200. Right now, my "pile of cash" is up to the level where I can play bigger cash games ($2/$5 NL or $10/$20 Limit) once a week, and I'm occasionally taking a little out for gas and groceries.
Here are the monthly numbers:
+$2144 January
+$697 February
-$1019 March
+$842 April
~ Now for an update on how my year has been. First of all, I'm trying to take my recreational play more seriously. I've set a goal this year of $10k profit. That is far ahead of anything I've made in the past. It may seem like a big number, but it's only $2500 every 3 months or roughly $835 each month. That doesn't seem too unreasonable.
I'm also trying to follow stricter bankroll requirements, rather than just playing whatever I feel like. I started out just playing $1/$2 and small tournaments under $200. Right now, my "pile of cash" is up to the level where I can play bigger cash games ($2/$5 NL or $10/$20 Limit) once a week, and I'm occasionally taking a little out for gas and groceries.
Here are the monthly numbers:
+$2144 January
+$697 February
-$1019 March
+$842 April
Thursday, January 10, 2013
The Big Poker Question (Or Luck vs Skill II)
First of all, here are my stats from last month's Las Vegas trip. This is a good example of the topic of this post.
Donkaments < $100: 8 tourneys, 3 chops/wins, +$1005, 173% ROI
Tournaments >=$100: 5 tourneys, 0 cashes, -$860
Cash Games: -$104, 18.5 hrs
Pit Play: -$108
2012 was my first losing year as a poker player. There were various factors, including running terrible in Omaha-8 games (-$1187, 66.5 hrs, 26 sessions). I also lost a decent chunk in Pit games (again), although it was a little less than 2011.
But the biggest factor in my losing year was the tournaments, and that's what this post will focus on. Here are the numbers.
Donkaments <$100: 183 tourneys, 49 cashes, 30 wins/chops, +$5438, 43.9% ROI
Tournaments >=$100: 69 tourneys. 6 cashes, 4 wins/chops, -$7466, -46.1% ROI
Donkaments < $100: 8 tourneys, 3 chops/wins, +$1005, 173% ROI
Tournaments >=$100: 5 tourneys, 0 cashes, -$860
Cash Games: -$104, 18.5 hrs
Pit Play: -$108
2012 was my first losing year as a poker player. There were various factors, including running terrible in Omaha-8 games (-$1187, 66.5 hrs, 26 sessions). I also lost a decent chunk in Pit games (again), although it was a little less than 2011.
But the biggest factor in my losing year was the tournaments, and that's what this post will focus on. Here are the numbers.
Donkaments <$100: 183 tourneys, 49 cashes, 30 wins/chops, +$5438, 43.9% ROI
Tournaments >=$100: 69 tourneys. 6 cashes, 4 wins/chops, -$7466, -46.1% ROI
Monday, November 5, 2012
November News & Notes
- As you loyal readers have noticed, I haven't been a loyal blogger lately. As I've mentioned before, things just aren't as blog-worthy after 400 entries, especially the day-to-day grind. Special events and road trips are still interesting, and I do have two more trips planned for this year.
Another reason for lack of blogging has been lack of playing. I started dating a young lady named Karen back in August, and that really cut down on my poker. However, that relationship has fizzled out, so I have more time for the tables.
Does that mean I'll be blogging more? Well, like most poker questions, the answer is "It depends." There will be times that I'll be motivated, and times that I won't. I may do three entries in a week, and then go three weeks without a word.
- Just like last year, I'm heading to Lake Tahoe for the WSOP Circuit that starts on Thursday. It's too far away to drive back and forth every night, so I got a hotel room from Sunday to Wednesday, and will be heading home on Thursday.
Another reason for lack of blogging has been lack of playing. I started dating a young lady named Karen back in August, and that really cut down on my poker. However, that relationship has fizzled out, so I have more time for the tables.
Does that mean I'll be blogging more? Well, like most poker questions, the answer is "It depends." There will be times that I'll be motivated, and times that I won't. I may do three entries in a week, and then go three weeks without a word.
- Just like last year, I'm heading to Lake Tahoe for the WSOP Circuit that starts on Thursday. It's too far away to drive back and forth every night, so I got a hotel room from Sunday to Wednesday, and will be heading home on Thursday.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
1 vs 100
(WARNING: This post contains only analysis of tournament stats. If this isn't something you want to read, then move on to your next blog.)
This week, I played my 100th tournament of the year. A hundred is a nice round number to do some analysis of the stats, so that what I'm gonna do. I'm also including the last 100 tourneys that I played last year, which goes back to April 24th. Each set of 100 will be separate.
(This Year ~~ Last Year)
Under $100
Count: 85 ~~ 63
Wins/Chops: 16 (18.8%) ~~ 12 (19%)
Cashes: 24 (28.2%) ~~ 20 (31.7%)
Bubbles (estimated): 2 ~~ 6
Profit: $2278 ~~ $2977
Profit per Tourney: $26.80 ~~ $47.25
ROI: 43.2% ~~ 69.5%
This week, I played my 100th tournament of the year. A hundred is a nice round number to do some analysis of the stats, so that what I'm gonna do. I'm also including the last 100 tourneys that I played last year, which goes back to April 24th. Each set of 100 will be separate.
(This Year ~~ Last Year)
Under $100
Count: 85 ~~ 63
Wins/Chops: 16 (18.8%) ~~ 12 (19%)
Cashes: 24 (28.2%) ~~ 20 (31.7%)
Bubbles (estimated): 2 ~~ 6
Profit: $2278 ~~ $2977
Profit per Tourney: $26.80 ~~ $47.25
ROI: 43.2% ~~ 69.5%
Saturday, February 4, 2012
February News & Notes
- Sunday is the Super Bowl. I know you've been anxiously waiting for my picks, so here is my official opinion... To me, as a life-long Cleveland fan, this is just another New York vs Boston match-up. Who cares?
I have no interest in the game, and will put no money on it. But, out of respect for my loyal readers, I do like the Giants +3 (or the Money Line) and the Under of 55. The Giants already beat the Patriots at Foxborough back in early November. The Giants are also the Hot Team right now, and we saw what that meant for the Green Bay Packers last year.
- If you're into poker podcasts, my boys at the Cleveland Poker Meetup Group have started doing a strategy podcast. They have done three podcasts so far, two on NL Cash Games, and one on Tournaments. The episodes are in the 1.5 hour range, and they do a pretty good job. The two hosts interview another CPMG member about a topic. Since they are Home Game players, there are some references to players and events that an outsider might not get. But overall, I definitely recommend checking them out, as the podcasts just become available on iTunes.
I have no interest in the game, and will put no money on it. But, out of respect for my loyal readers, I do like the Giants +3 (or the Money Line) and the Under of 55. The Giants already beat the Patriots at Foxborough back in early November. The Giants are also the Hot Team right now, and we saw what that meant for the Green Bay Packers last year.
- If you're into poker podcasts, my boys at the Cleveland Poker Meetup Group have started doing a strategy podcast. They have done three podcasts so far, two on NL Cash Games, and one on Tournaments. The episodes are in the 1.5 hour range, and they do a pretty good job. The two hosts interview another CPMG member about a topic. Since they are Home Game players, there are some references to players and events that an outsider might not get. But overall, I definitely recommend checking them out, as the podcasts just become available on iTunes.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Remember When I Was A Winning Player...
First of all, I want to say that I have never considered myself a "Good" player. I don't mean that in the way that most people say, "He's a good player" or "That dude sucks." I use the terms "Good", "Above Average", and "Average" as an official, objective ranking. While I would consider myself a "Good" tournament player, I'm only an "Average" Limit Holdem player.
However, this post is about NL Cash, specifically $1/$2 and $2/$3. While I've consider myself an "Above Average, approaching Good" player, I have always been a winning player. I have kept records in a database for the past five years, along with over 300 blog entries, that show I have been a winning player over the long run.
However, I can no longer say that. Here are the numbers since I moved out to Reno back in October '10.
$1/$2 NL: -$1207 ~ 87 Sessions (-$13.87/Session) ~ 233.50 hrs (-$5.17/hr)
$2/$3 NL: -$490 ~ 40 Sessions (-$12.25/Session) ~ 120.25 hrs (-$4.07/hr)
Last 20 Sessions (combined): -$1586 ~ 7-13 ~ 54.25 hrs
These numbers aren't catastrophic, and aren't telling me to quit poker and take up pottery. However, the sample size is large enough to tell me that something is very wrong. Here are three things that I believe are affecting my winrate.
1) Fancy Play Syndrome - A while back, one of the things that I wanted to improve in order to become a "Good" NL player was to win without cards. You know, running without the ball, making something from nothing, reading situations and taking advantage of them, getting maximum value from 6-high...
Overall, I have gotten better at this, as documented through various Hands Of The Day and Running Logs. It's a good tool to use once or twice a session to help increase my winrate.
The problem is that there are sessions which I'm doing it once or twice an hour, or even per orbit. I ended up burning through chips by calling to float on the Flop and/or Turn, and then having to fold on the River. Other times, I put out a big raise, and run into a monster.
There's no doubt that I'm often the best player at the table. But I'm not good enough to play so reckless, just to prove that I'm smarter than the other players.
2) Patience - Before I moved to Reno, I was known as patient player, in both cash games and tournaments. However, those days are long gone.
Why?
Well, as for cash games, if you look closely at the numbers above, you'll see that I'm averaging only 2.75 hours per session. With my work schedule of six long days per week, it's rare that I play a session of six hours or longer, with many sessions being two hours or less. In shorter sessions, you need to catch some cards in order to win. If I'm not catching the cards, sometimes I try to make things happen, which is what I just talked about.
In tournaments, I played mostly home tournaments back in Cleveland, and those tourneys had pretty good structures. In Reno, it's been mostly Daily Donkaments, and you need a different mindset for those. When I have played in the occasional bigger tourney, I have still gone in with the donkament mindset, and have gotten into some trouble with it.
3) Luck/Variance - As I've mentioned before, I don't like the term "Running Bad", mostly because I think that many players use it as an excuse. But maybe ignoring the "Luck Factor" of poker is just as bad as using it as a crutch.
Last winter, I went on a heater, and was piling up the money. But since the spring, it's been going downhill. There has been a few spikes up, but things haven't been going good for a while now.
Last weekend, I was gonna play every day from Wednesday through Sunday, due to the holiday weekend. I had Thursday off from work, and my Friday night bowling league was off due to the holiday. I set a goal of making $1000 in the $1/$2 games, to see if I could focus on playing good, and making money. Here are the results.
Wed 11.23 (Atlantis) -$81 ~ 5.25 hrs
Thur 11.24 (Grand Sierra) +$209 ~ 3.25 hrs
Thur 11.24 (Peppermill) -$300 ~ 1.50 hrs
Fri 11.25 (Atlantis) -$289 ~ 1.75 hrs
I quit after this, as it looked like I was more likely to lose $1000 instead of winning it. I didn't even play on Saturday night. On Sunday, I did the Double Daily Donkament thing, and airballed both of them.
I'm taking this entire week off to clear my head, and I won't be stepping foot in a casino until Sunday. Hopefully, I can improve on #1 and #2, but #3 is something that I just have to deal with.
However, this post is about NL Cash, specifically $1/$2 and $2/$3. While I've consider myself an "Above Average, approaching Good" player, I have always been a winning player. I have kept records in a database for the past five years, along with over 300 blog entries, that show I have been a winning player over the long run.
However, I can no longer say that. Here are the numbers since I moved out to Reno back in October '10.
$1/$2 NL: -$1207 ~ 87 Sessions (-$13.87/Session) ~ 233.50 hrs (-$5.17/hr)
$2/$3 NL: -$490 ~ 40 Sessions (-$12.25/Session) ~ 120.25 hrs (-$4.07/hr)
Last 20 Sessions (combined): -$1586 ~ 7-13 ~ 54.25 hrs
These numbers aren't catastrophic, and aren't telling me to quit poker and take up pottery. However, the sample size is large enough to tell me that something is very wrong. Here are three things that I believe are affecting my winrate.
1) Fancy Play Syndrome - A while back, one of the things that I wanted to improve in order to become a "Good" NL player was to win without cards. You know, running without the ball, making something from nothing, reading situations and taking advantage of them, getting maximum value from 6-high...
Overall, I have gotten better at this, as documented through various Hands Of The Day and Running Logs. It's a good tool to use once or twice a session to help increase my winrate.
The problem is that there are sessions which I'm doing it once or twice an hour, or even per orbit. I ended up burning through chips by calling to float on the Flop and/or Turn, and then having to fold on the River. Other times, I put out a big raise, and run into a monster.
There's no doubt that I'm often the best player at the table. But I'm not good enough to play so reckless, just to prove that I'm smarter than the other players.
2) Patience - Before I moved to Reno, I was known as patient player, in both cash games and tournaments. However, those days are long gone.
Why?
Well, as for cash games, if you look closely at the numbers above, you'll see that I'm averaging only 2.75 hours per session. With my work schedule of six long days per week, it's rare that I play a session of six hours or longer, with many sessions being two hours or less. In shorter sessions, you need to catch some cards in order to win. If I'm not catching the cards, sometimes I try to make things happen, which is what I just talked about.
In tournaments, I played mostly home tournaments back in Cleveland, and those tourneys had pretty good structures. In Reno, it's been mostly Daily Donkaments, and you need a different mindset for those. When I have played in the occasional bigger tourney, I have still gone in with the donkament mindset, and have gotten into some trouble with it.
3) Luck/Variance - As I've mentioned before, I don't like the term "Running Bad", mostly because I think that many players use it as an excuse. But maybe ignoring the "Luck Factor" of poker is just as bad as using it as a crutch.
Last winter, I went on a heater, and was piling up the money. But since the spring, it's been going downhill. There has been a few spikes up, but things haven't been going good for a while now.
Last weekend, I was gonna play every day from Wednesday through Sunday, due to the holiday weekend. I had Thursday off from work, and my Friday night bowling league was off due to the holiday. I set a goal of making $1000 in the $1/$2 games, to see if I could focus on playing good, and making money. Here are the results.
Wed 11.23 (Atlantis) -$81 ~ 5.25 hrs
Thur 11.24 (Grand Sierra) +$209 ~ 3.25 hrs
Thur 11.24 (Peppermill) -$300 ~ 1.50 hrs
Fri 11.25 (Atlantis) -$289 ~ 1.75 hrs
I quit after this, as it looked like I was more likely to lose $1000 instead of winning it. I didn't even play on Saturday night. On Sunday, I did the Double Daily Donkament thing, and airballed both of them.
I'm taking this entire week off to clear my head, and I won't be stepping foot in a casino until Sunday. Hopefully, I can improve on #1 and #2, but #3 is something that I just have to deal with.
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Win More Or Win More Often
I've heard various poker players not want to sign-up for a daily tourney because they say there isn't enough players to make it worthwhile. I tell them that it's easier to win a smaller tournament. They usually say, "Yeah, but whatever."
So this got me thinking... Is it better to win more in a larger field tournament, or win more often in small field tournaments?
I decided to crack open my database, and crunch some numbers. In order to get a large sample size, I looked at all tournaments back to 2007, over three years, which is 306 tournaments. Here are some stats, broken down by entrants.
20 Players Or Less
Tourneys: 94
Cashes: 32 (34%)
Wins/Chops: 19 (20.2%)
ROI: 49.79%
21-40 Players
Tourneys:152
Cashes: 26 (17%)
Wins/Chops: 10 (6.6%)
ROI: 29.60%
41 Players Or More
Tourneys: 60
Cashes: 9 (15%)
Wins/Chops: 3 (5%)
ROI: -26.43%
I'm a little surprised by some these numbers. Obviously, the Cash% and Win% would be higher in a smaller field. I expected the ROIs to be similar, but the fact that they are so far apart is unexpected.
I think one reason for this is my larger buy-in events. I've played 20 tournaments that were over $200 and over 20 players, and I've only cashed in one of them for $802. A bigger score in one of these tournaments would probably put my ROI into the profit range.
Another reason could be that my tournament game needs some work in larger field events. I've played in 20 CPMG tourneys over 40 players since 2007, and have just one chop and a 3rd place. Twenty tourneys isn't a large sample size, but I should have better results than these.
So to answer the original question, is it better to win more, or win more often? Before I looked at the numbers, my answer was Both. Naturally, you want to hit the Big Score in a larger field tournament. But cashing more regularly in smaller tournaments helps reduce the variance of being a tourney player. I still think that's the answer, but it also depends on your style and you success in the different field sizes.
So this got me thinking... Is it better to win more in a larger field tournament, or win more often in small field tournaments?
I decided to crack open my database, and crunch some numbers. In order to get a large sample size, I looked at all tournaments back to 2007, over three years, which is 306 tournaments. Here are some stats, broken down by entrants.
20 Players Or Less
Tourneys: 94
Cashes: 32 (34%)
Wins/Chops: 19 (20.2%)
ROI: 49.79%
21-40 Players
Tourneys:152
Cashes: 26 (17%)
Wins/Chops: 10 (6.6%)
ROI: 29.60%
41 Players Or More
Tourneys: 60
Cashes: 9 (15%)
Wins/Chops: 3 (5%)
ROI: -26.43%
I'm a little surprised by some these numbers. Obviously, the Cash% and Win% would be higher in a smaller field. I expected the ROIs to be similar, but the fact that they are so far apart is unexpected.
I think one reason for this is my larger buy-in events. I've played 20 tournaments that were over $200 and over 20 players, and I've only cashed in one of them for $802. A bigger score in one of these tournaments would probably put my ROI into the profit range.
Another reason could be that my tournament game needs some work in larger field events. I've played in 20 CPMG tourneys over 40 players since 2007, and have just one chop and a 3rd place. Twenty tourneys isn't a large sample size, but I should have better results than these.
So to answer the original question, is it better to win more, or win more often? Before I looked at the numbers, my answer was Both. Naturally, you want to hit the Big Score in a larger field tournament. But cashing more regularly in smaller tournaments helps reduce the variance of being a tourney player. I still think that's the answer, but it also depends on your style and you success in the different field sizes.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
A Tale Of Two Rooms
A while back, I compared my results from the Detroit poker rooms, and my numbers varied from room to room.
So if I do the same for the Reno rooms, will the results also vary? The short answer is, 'Hell yeah!" In fact, there is one room that I just can win, and another room that I can't seem to lose. Here are those numbers.
I really don't know why I can't win in one room, but I can't lose in the other. Yes, short term variance is a factor, and I'm sure the numbers will probably even out somewhat a year from now.
And I know that $1/$2 and $2/$3 are not exactly the same game, but they're close enough. The preflop raises are slightly bigger in the $2/$3 game, and the average pot size is slightly larger. So over the very long term, I would guess the hourly win rate might be $5/hr more at $2/$3 than at $1/$2, but that's not really a factor for this sample size.
Grand Sierra is full of Super Nits who buy-in for $100, and just don't want to put any money in the pot. Atlantis certainly has it's share of Super Nits. But there are a few players who I enjoy seeing at the table, because I know they don't like to fold. Maybe it only takes one or two at a table to make it profitable.
Here are the numbers for the other two casinos, just for comparison:
So if I do the same for the Reno rooms, will the results also vary? The short answer is, 'Hell yeah!" In fact, there is one room that I just can win, and another room that I can't seem to lose. Here are those numbers.
Atlantis $2/$3: 14 sessions (10-4 .714) +$2820 (+$201.43 avg) 51.25 hrs (+$55.02/hr)
Last five sessions:
12/12: +$115 ~ 1.50 hrs
12/11: +$160 ~ 4.00 hrs
12/09: +$353 ~ 2.00 hrs
12/03: +$256 ~ 3.00 hrs
11/28: +$538 ~ 3.25 hrs
Grand Sierra $1/$2: 11 sessions (3-8 .273) -$1085 (-$98.63 avg) 33 hrs (-$32.88/hr)
Last five sessions:
12/10: -$100 ~ 3.0 hrs
11/21: -$270 ~ 4.5 hrs
11/19: -$234 ~ 4.0 hrs
11/17: -$91 ~ 3.0 hrs
11/11: +$215 ~ 2.0 hrs
I really don't know why I can't win in one room, but I can't lose in the other. Yes, short term variance is a factor, and I'm sure the numbers will probably even out somewhat a year from now.
And I know that $1/$2 and $2/$3 are not exactly the same game, but they're close enough. The preflop raises are slightly bigger in the $2/$3 game, and the average pot size is slightly larger. So over the very long term, I would guess the hourly win rate might be $5/hr more at $2/$3 than at $1/$2, but that's not really a factor for this sample size.
Grand Sierra is full of Super Nits who buy-in for $100, and just don't want to put any money in the pot. Atlantis certainly has it's share of Super Nits. But there are a few players who I enjoy seeing at the table, because I know they don't like to fold. Maybe it only takes one or two at a table to make it profitable.
Here are the numbers for the other two casinos, just for comparison:
Peppermill $1/$2: 11 sessions (5-5-1 .455) -$148 (-$13.45 avg) 30.75 hrs (-$4.81/hr)
Last five sessions:
12/23: +$183 ~ 2.25 hrs
12/20: -$224 ~ 1.75 hrs
11/29: -$173 ~ 2.5 hrs
11/27: +$0 ~ 3.0 hrs
11/03: -$420 ~ 3.0 hrs
Eldorado $1/$2: 4 sessions (3-1 .750) +$317 (+$79.25 avg) 10.5 hrs (+$30.19/hr)
Last four sessions:
12/05: +$251 ~ 3.0 hrs
11/22: +$19 ~ 2.75 hrs
11/12: -$96 ~ 2.0 hrs
11/10: +$143 ~ 2.75 hrs
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Luck Vs Skill
It's Friday night when I start this post, and I just got back from the Peppermill with a small loss at the $1/$2 game. I did a Running Log of the session that I will publish later.
This was my 5th losing session in a row, and I'm 2-8 in my last 10 sessions (9 NL and 1 Limit).
If you think this will be a post about me whining and complaining about "Running Bad", guess again. The term "Running Bad" is not part of my vocabulary. Ups and Downs are part of the game of Poker. I've been though various cold streaks in the few years that I've been playing. Learning to deal with them is part of the game. I definitely haven't play Perfect Poker in my last 10 sessions, but my Luck Factor is certainly on the Negative side.
Poker has always had the Luck vs Skill debate. Here is my saying about this topic: "The Skill in Poker is winning more when Luck is good, and losing less when Luck is bad."
The total for my eight losing sessions is -$1137, which averages out to -$142.13. The largest was -$236. My two winning sessions were $187 and $824 for a total of $1011. So my "Running Bad" streak of 2-8 means that I've lost $126 overall, or $12.60 per session.
I think that would qualify as "losing less when Luck is bad."
This was my 5th losing session in a row, and I'm 2-8 in my last 10 sessions (9 NL and 1 Limit).
If you think this will be a post about me whining and complaining about "Running Bad", guess again. The term "Running Bad" is not part of my vocabulary. Ups and Downs are part of the game of Poker. I've been though various cold streaks in the few years that I've been playing. Learning to deal with them is part of the game. I definitely haven't play Perfect Poker in my last 10 sessions, but my Luck Factor is certainly on the Negative side.
Poker has always had the Luck vs Skill debate. Here is my saying about this topic: "The Skill in Poker is winning more when Luck is good, and losing less when Luck is bad."
The total for my eight losing sessions is -$1137, which averages out to -$142.13. The largest was -$236. My two winning sessions were $187 and $824 for a total of $1011. So my "Running Bad" streak of 2-8 means that I've lost $126 overall, or $12.60 per session.
I think that would qualify as "losing less when Luck is bad."
Thursday, September 30, 2010
A Look At Some Numbers
As I've mentioned before, I keep track of my Poker numbers in a database. I think it's much easier to compare different stats in a database, rather than a spreadsheet.
Back in September '09, I added two new columns to the database involving Time. I never kept track of my hourly rate before. But with so many "Pros" discussing their win rate, I figured it was time to start.
Since it's been just over a year, I figured there should be enough of a sample size to look over the numbers. However, the only game with a large numbers of hours is $1/$2 NL. Both $2/$5 NL and $3/$6 Limit are under 30 hours each.
For theses numbers, I have combined $1/$2 and $1/$3 NL since I have not played much $1/$3, and they're essentially the same game.
Total Profit: $6055
Total Hours: 291.75
Total Sessions: 86
Avg per Hour: $20.75
Avg Session: 3.4 hrs
The "Pros" say you should be averaging between $20 - $25 per hour at $1/$2, so I'm right on pace. The thing that might seem strange to some people is the Avg Session being only 3.4 hours. I know that many players brag about how they play for 12-18 hours and even all-nighters. But for me, a six hour session is a long one. That may change a bit when I'm living five minutes from various poker rooms.
I said at the start of this post that I added two columns to my database. The other column besides Hours was Time Period. This is used to keep track of which Time Period that I'm playing. There are four Time Periods that I'm using: Weekday (Mon-Fri before 7pm), Weekday Night (Mon-Thu after 7pm), Weekend Day (Sat & Sun before 7pm), and Weekend Night (Fri-Sun after 7pm).
The point of this is to see if there is any difference in win rates between the different Time Periods. However, some of these Time Periods have a small sample size, so I'm not sure how accurate they may be in the long run.
Weekday: 35 sessions, $2946, 122.5 hrs, $24.05/hr
Weekday Night: 19 sessions, $1720, 61.5 hrs, $27.97/hr
Weekend Day: 22 sessions, $763, 73 hrs, $10.45/hr
Weekend Night: 10 sessions, $626, 34.75 hrs, $18.01/hr
I'm a little surprised by these numbers. I would have assumed that Weekends would be more profitable than Weekdays because Weekends would have more Recreational Players than Grinders. But certainly a sample of 10 sessions is rather small. I will definitely look at these numbers again next year after I've been in Reno for a while.
Back in September '09, I added two new columns to the database involving Time. I never kept track of my hourly rate before. But with so many "Pros" discussing their win rate, I figured it was time to start.
Since it's been just over a year, I figured there should be enough of a sample size to look over the numbers. However, the only game with a large numbers of hours is $1/$2 NL. Both $2/$5 NL and $3/$6 Limit are under 30 hours each.
For theses numbers, I have combined $1/$2 and $1/$3 NL since I have not played much $1/$3, and they're essentially the same game.
Total Profit: $6055
Total Hours: 291.75
Total Sessions: 86
Avg per Hour: $20.75
Avg Session: 3.4 hrs
The "Pros" say you should be averaging between $20 - $25 per hour at $1/$2, so I'm right on pace. The thing that might seem strange to some people is the Avg Session being only 3.4 hours. I know that many players brag about how they play for 12-18 hours and even all-nighters. But for me, a six hour session is a long one. That may change a bit when I'm living five minutes from various poker rooms.
I said at the start of this post that I added two columns to my database. The other column besides Hours was Time Period. This is used to keep track of which Time Period that I'm playing. There are four Time Periods that I'm using: Weekday (Mon-Fri before 7pm), Weekday Night (Mon-Thu after 7pm), Weekend Day (Sat & Sun before 7pm), and Weekend Night (Fri-Sun after 7pm).
The point of this is to see if there is any difference in win rates between the different Time Periods. However, some of these Time Periods have a small sample size, so I'm not sure how accurate they may be in the long run.
Weekday: 35 sessions, $2946, 122.5 hrs, $24.05/hr
Weekday Night: 19 sessions, $1720, 61.5 hrs, $27.97/hr
Weekend Day: 22 sessions, $763, 73 hrs, $10.45/hr
Weekend Night: 10 sessions, $626, 34.75 hrs, $18.01/hr
I'm a little surprised by these numbers. I would have assumed that Weekends would be more profitable than Weekdays because Weekends would have more Recreational Players than Grinders. But certainly a sample of 10 sessions is rather small. I will definitely look at these numbers again next year after I've been in Reno for a while.
Friday, April 9, 2010
I Have To Admit ... I'm Not Getting Any Better
After my recent "vacation of Poker" in Detroit and Cincinnati, I was reflecting on the Good and the Bad of the experience. And I finally came to the realization that I'm not getting any better at this game.
Don't get me wrong, I certainly don't suck at Poker. In fact, I would rank myself as an "Above Average" player in both NL Cash and Tournaments. The problem is that I have been at the "Above Average" rank for the past 2-3 years, and I haven't made the natural progression to the "Good" ranking.
So what would it take for me to consider myself a "Good" Cash Player? Simple. Beat $2/$5 NLHE.
Between 2009 & 2010, I've lost $1877 at $2/$5. That is only 8 sessions (2 Wins, 5 Losses), which I know is a small sample size.
Sure, I'm a winning $1/$2 player, but how hard is it to beat $1/$2? Besides, my numbers are not as good as they should be. I've only been keeping track of Hours Played since September '09. During that time, I have won $2034 in 158.75 hours during 48 sessions. That works out to $12.81 per hour, which sucks.
Another bad thing about my numbers is the size of the Cash-outs. My biggest ever at $1/$2 is just $720, and that was back in Oct '08. After that, I've only got 2 other Cash-outs over $555 ($628 in 03/09 and $601 in 06/08).
The good part about my small Cash-outs is that my losses are also small. The most I've ever lost is just $450 in 10/08. I am certainly a Small Ball player when it comes to NL Cash games.
So what am I gonna do about it? Maybe I'll just keep plodding along, and hopefully some magical switch will click in my brain? No, that what I've been doing. I need to attack this, and put a plan together.
I have been thinking about this for the past week, and I've come up with a few things. Some are stuff that I need to start doing. Some are things that I need to think about in a different light. And some are probably just bullshit, but I'm gonna list them anyways. After all, that's what a Blog is for.
- Change my Preflop Raising: I've been using my standard $1/$2 preflop raise of $7 for a long time, and overall, it's been good to me. But it has gotten me into some ridiculous situations, because all the limper jump on board. Going to the Flop with seven players in a raised pot is not good poker.
So I'm gonna tweak it a bit. In the $200 max games, I will still do $7, but I will add $1 for each limper. For the $300 max games, I will do bump it $10, with the same $1 for each limper. I'm not sure how much of a difference this will make. But it will make some of the pots bigger. And that's a good way to have bigger Cash-outs.
- More 3-betting Preflop: For those who don't know, a 3-bet is the 2nd raise that is made on a particular street (usually Preflop). Online, 3-betting is standard, with the aggressive players 4-betting, and even 5-betting. In Live play, 3-betting is very rare without a premium hand.
So I'm in the Cutoff with a hand that I'm would raise (say JTs), and a player in Mid position raises to $10, then why not 3-bet to $25 instead of just calling? It would reduce the number of players to the Flop, and I would have Position on that player. That seems like smart Poker to me.
- Less "Bingo!": It's not uncommon to sit a $1/$2 table that is playing like a $3/$6 Limit game. A whole lot of limping, and a whole lot of calling preflop. Everyone is just hoping to hit their "Bingo!". Sometimes when I'm in the BB, I'll just check my option, and say "Come on, Red 32!", which is Roulette reference.
Don't get me wrong, sometimes a little "Bingo!" is perfectly OK. But like everything else in Poker, it needs to be in the right situation. Usually, as cheap as possible, and with Position. But when you start calling preflop raises because everyone else is. or you start chasing on the Flop, hoping to hit your miracle Turn card, then you're just gambling.
Also, when you see the players on High Stake Poker playing all kinds of crap, trying to hit their "Bingo!", they are playing against players who have 150-400 Big Blinds in front of them. At a $1/$2 table, many of the "Bingo!"players are sitting there with $80, and are hoping to hit the Bad Beat Jackpot. Just how much can you win with your miracle card?
- Win more pots before showdown: This is one of those mental things. As I just said, players love to call Preflop and on the Flop. Even on the Turn, some are willing to call. But by the River, they will often give up because they didn't hit what they were chasing.
If I get into the mental state of trying to win pots before showdown, then I don't actually need a hand in order to win the pot (in theory).
- Focus solely on NL Cash: I enjoy tournaments, and I enjoy playing other forms of Poker. But NL Cash games is where the money is at. So, if I want to get better, then I need to focus on just NL Cash for a while. That means no more tournaments on my Casino trips.
As for my Home games, I still gotta play tournaments, since I'm the Tournament Director. But I will play the $1/$1 NL game when ever I can, but no more 8-Game for a while.
This will also apply to Online Poker. I don't play much Online, mostly because I get bored after an hour or so. Usually, I prefer to play other games, like Limit Hold'em or Limit Omaha-8. But I've already started playing 6-max NLHE at very low stakes (.05/.10). It plays completely different than Live Poker. But part of becoming a "Good" player is adjusting to the table that I'm playing.
- Be more willing to play bigger pots, and willing to go deeper into my pocket: This one is self explanatory. Being a Small Baller, I'm not a big fan of playing big pots with just One Pair, as we saw in this Hand Of The Day. But if I want to start getting bigger Cash-outs, then I need to start playing bigger pots. Also, I need to be willing to go deeper into my pocket for more buy-ins when the situation is right.
- Work on Tells and Strength/Weakness: I have to admit that I really suck to this stuff. Yes, I can pick up the occasional Tell on the New/Bad player. Mostly that's because they are No0bs, and don't know any better yet. But with the Good/Experienced players, I just don't notice this stuff. I really wish I could. It would be the #1 thing that I would like to improve in my 'game'.
I know that Tells aren't the most important thing, and they really aren't that big of a factor. Betting patterns tell you so much more. But if I could make just one good $30 call, and one good $30 fold because of the Tell, then that would increase my win-rate by $60 a session.
Awhile back, I bought the Phil Hellmuth & Joe Navarro book, "Read 'Em and Reap" about Tells. One of these days, I really should start reading it. But I ain't never been one for no book learnin'.
And finally...
- Start playing more $2/$5: This is another "DUH!". If I want to start beating $2/$5, then maybe I should play it more. And if my bankroll can't support it, then I need to make more trips to the ATM. I really hate dipping into my Real Life money to do that, but I can afford to do it. It's time to step up, and see if I really can be better than just a Recreational player.
Don't get me wrong, I certainly don't suck at Poker. In fact, I would rank myself as an "Above Average" player in both NL Cash and Tournaments. The problem is that I have been at the "Above Average" rank for the past 2-3 years, and I haven't made the natural progression to the "Good" ranking.
So what would it take for me to consider myself a "Good" Cash Player? Simple. Beat $2/$5 NLHE.
Between 2009 & 2010, I've lost $1877 at $2/$5. That is only 8 sessions (2 Wins, 5 Losses), which I know is a small sample size.
Sure, I'm a winning $1/$2 player, but how hard is it to beat $1/$2? Besides, my numbers are not as good as they should be. I've only been keeping track of Hours Played since September '09. During that time, I have won $2034 in 158.75 hours during 48 sessions. That works out to $12.81 per hour, which sucks.
Another bad thing about my numbers is the size of the Cash-outs. My biggest ever at $1/$2 is just $720, and that was back in Oct '08. After that, I've only got 2 other Cash-outs over $555 ($628 in 03/09 and $601 in 06/08).
The good part about my small Cash-outs is that my losses are also small. The most I've ever lost is just $450 in 10/08. I am certainly a Small Ball player when it comes to NL Cash games.
So what am I gonna do about it? Maybe I'll just keep plodding along, and hopefully some magical switch will click in my brain? No, that what I've been doing. I need to attack this, and put a plan together.
I have been thinking about this for the past week, and I've come up with a few things. Some are stuff that I need to start doing. Some are things that I need to think about in a different light. And some are probably just bullshit, but I'm gonna list them anyways. After all, that's what a Blog is for.
- Change my Preflop Raising: I've been using my standard $1/$2 preflop raise of $7 for a long time, and overall, it's been good to me. But it has gotten me into some ridiculous situations, because all the limper jump on board. Going to the Flop with seven players in a raised pot is not good poker.
So I'm gonna tweak it a bit. In the $200 max games, I will still do $7, but I will add $1 for each limper. For the $300 max games, I will do bump it $10, with the same $1 for each limper. I'm not sure how much of a difference this will make. But it will make some of the pots bigger. And that's a good way to have bigger Cash-outs.
- More 3-betting Preflop: For those who don't know, a 3-bet is the 2nd raise that is made on a particular street (usually Preflop). Online, 3-betting is standard, with the aggressive players 4-betting, and even 5-betting. In Live play, 3-betting is very rare without a premium hand.
So I'm in the Cutoff with a hand that I'm would raise (say JTs), and a player in Mid position raises to $10, then why not 3-bet to $25 instead of just calling? It would reduce the number of players to the Flop, and I would have Position on that player. That seems like smart Poker to me.
- Less "Bingo!": It's not uncommon to sit a $1/$2 table that is playing like a $3/$6 Limit game. A whole lot of limping, and a whole lot of calling preflop. Everyone is just hoping to hit their "Bingo!". Sometimes when I'm in the BB, I'll just check my option, and say "Come on, Red 32!", which is Roulette reference.
Don't get me wrong, sometimes a little "Bingo!" is perfectly OK. But like everything else in Poker, it needs to be in the right situation. Usually, as cheap as possible, and with Position. But when you start calling preflop raises because everyone else is. or you start chasing on the Flop, hoping to hit your miracle Turn card, then you're just gambling.
Also, when you see the players on High Stake Poker playing all kinds of crap, trying to hit their "Bingo!", they are playing against players who have 150-400 Big Blinds in front of them. At a $1/$2 table, many of the "Bingo!"players are sitting there with $80, and are hoping to hit the Bad Beat Jackpot. Just how much can you win with your miracle card?
- Win more pots before showdown: This is one of those mental things. As I just said, players love to call Preflop and on the Flop. Even on the Turn, some are willing to call. But by the River, they will often give up because they didn't hit what they were chasing.
If I get into the mental state of trying to win pots before showdown, then I don't actually need a hand in order to win the pot (in theory).
- Focus solely on NL Cash: I enjoy tournaments, and I enjoy playing other forms of Poker. But NL Cash games is where the money is at. So, if I want to get better, then I need to focus on just NL Cash for a while. That means no more tournaments on my Casino trips.
As for my Home games, I still gotta play tournaments, since I'm the Tournament Director. But I will play the $1/$1 NL game when ever I can, but no more 8-Game for a while.
This will also apply to Online Poker. I don't play much Online, mostly because I get bored after an hour or so. Usually, I prefer to play other games, like Limit Hold'em or Limit Omaha-8. But I've already started playing 6-max NLHE at very low stakes (.05/.10). It plays completely different than Live Poker. But part of becoming a "Good" player is adjusting to the table that I'm playing.
- Be more willing to play bigger pots, and willing to go deeper into my pocket: This one is self explanatory. Being a Small Baller, I'm not a big fan of playing big pots with just One Pair, as we saw in this Hand Of The Day. But if I want to start getting bigger Cash-outs, then I need to start playing bigger pots. Also, I need to be willing to go deeper into my pocket for more buy-ins when the situation is right.
- Work on Tells and Strength/Weakness: I have to admit that I really suck to this stuff. Yes, I can pick up the occasional Tell on the New/Bad player. Mostly that's because they are No0bs, and don't know any better yet. But with the Good/Experienced players, I just don't notice this stuff. I really wish I could. It would be the #1 thing that I would like to improve in my 'game'.
I know that Tells aren't the most important thing, and they really aren't that big of a factor. Betting patterns tell you so much more. But if I could make just one good $30 call, and one good $30 fold because of the Tell, then that would increase my win-rate by $60 a session.
Awhile back, I bought the Phil Hellmuth & Joe Navarro book, "Read 'Em and Reap" about Tells. One of these days, I really should start reading it. But I ain't never been one for no book learnin'.
And finally...
- Start playing more $2/$5: This is another "DUH!". If I want to start beating $2/$5, then maybe I should play it more. And if my bankroll can't support it, then I need to make more trips to the ATM. I really hate dipping into my Real Life money to do that, but I can afford to do it. It's time to step up, and see if I really can be better than just a Recreational player.
Friday, January 1, 2010
The Year in Review
It's time to look back and see how 2009 was. Last year, 2008, was a very good year for me on the Poker front. This year, not so much.
Let's start with the good stuff.
Once again, the Home games in the CPMG were very good to me. I was up $2120 in Cash games. Most of that came from the main game, $1/$1 NLHE ($2010 in 36 sessions). The rest of the games end up in a wash.
The tournament numbers were also good: 52 tournaments, 5 wins, 14 cashes, $1880 buy-in, $2400 cashout, 27.66% ROI.
The biggest issue that I have with my tourney numbers is that my five wins all came in small fields ranging from 9 to 23 players. I haven't won a tournament with over 30 players since early in 2007, and I've never won a tournament over 39 players. This is a hole in my tournament 'game', and I wish I knew how to fix it.
And then there is the Casino side of the ledger. Some of the numbers are good, some are bad, and some are very, very ugly.
On the good side is tournaments: 22 tournaments, 4 wins or chops, 5 cashes, $1965 buy-in, $2115 cashout, 7.63% ROI.
Yes, it's only $150 profit. But the important thing is that this was the first year that I've actually made money in Casino tournaments. Hopefully, a sign of things to come.
The Cash games were also profitable to me, $1965. That number seems respectable, but it's a mix of good and bad. The good was from the $1/$2 & $1/$3 games ($4875, 67 sessions). The bad was $2/$5 (-$1967, 7 sessions) and various Limit Hold'em attempts (-$889, 10 sessions).
The ugly part of the numbers happened in the Pit. I lost $2332 on various Table games, and $655 at Video Poker, although I did win $220 in Slots. These numbers are disgusting, and I really can't defend them. But I did learn not to play certain games as the year went on, and was up $40 at the Table games for the last three months of the year.
I would like to say that I just won't play in the Pit anymore, but I know that ain't gonna happen. I just need to do it in moderation, and play games that seem to work for me.
Let's start with the good stuff.
Once again, the Home games in the CPMG were very good to me. I was up $2120 in Cash games. Most of that came from the main game, $1/$1 NLHE ($2010 in 36 sessions). The rest of the games end up in a wash.
The tournament numbers were also good: 52 tournaments, 5 wins, 14 cashes, $1880 buy-in, $2400 cashout, 27.66% ROI.
The biggest issue that I have with my tourney numbers is that my five wins all came in small fields ranging from 9 to 23 players. I haven't won a tournament with over 30 players since early in 2007, and I've never won a tournament over 39 players. This is a hole in my tournament 'game', and I wish I knew how to fix it.
And then there is the Casino side of the ledger. Some of the numbers are good, some are bad, and some are very, very ugly.
On the good side is tournaments: 22 tournaments, 4 wins or chops, 5 cashes, $1965 buy-in, $2115 cashout, 7.63% ROI.
Yes, it's only $150 profit. But the important thing is that this was the first year that I've actually made money in Casino tournaments. Hopefully, a sign of things to come.
The Cash games were also profitable to me, $1965. That number seems respectable, but it's a mix of good and bad. The good was from the $1/$2 & $1/$3 games ($4875, 67 sessions). The bad was $2/$5 (-$1967, 7 sessions) and various Limit Hold'em attempts (-$889, 10 sessions).
The ugly part of the numbers happened in the Pit. I lost $2332 on various Table games, and $655 at Video Poker, although I did win $220 in Slots. These numbers are disgusting, and I really can't defend them. But I did learn not to play certain games as the year went on, and was up $40 at the Table games for the last three months of the year.
I would like to say that I just won't play in the Pit anymore, but I know that ain't gonna happen. I just need to do it in moderation, and play games that seem to work for me.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Game Selection
At my regular home game on Saturday night, we got into a small discussion about Detroit poker rooms. Someone agreed with me that Motor City is the nicest room, but they also said that the players are tougher at MC and Greektown has the softest games.
To be perfectly honest, I never really compared the 'toughness' of the $1/$2 NL games. Most because I've always thought that $1/$2 is the same at every casino. I just go to different places for some variety.
Since I keep track of my poker wins and losses in a database, it's very easy to make a query to compare results. So I did some poking and prodding, and came up with some surprising results.
I used results from the last few years for all Detroit rooms, as well as Mountaineer since it's just as close.
I have to use a disclaimer. Since these are using a small sample size, the numbers could change drastically if my next session at any room is either +$500 or -$300. But these are the numbers I have, so that what I'm gonna use.
Well, I was obviously wrong. Looking at these numbers, I have no reason to go back to Motor City, except for the "free room" offers. Greektown seems to be the best results. I know that MGM is also great on weekends, but super tight on weekday afternoons.
And since I've been getting so many "free room" offers from Detroit, I have only been to Mountaineer only a few times in the last six months. That's something that I need to fix.
To be perfectly honest, I never really compared the 'toughness' of the $1/$2 NL games. Most because I've always thought that $1/$2 is the same at every casino. I just go to different places for some variety.
Since I keep track of my poker wins and losses in a database, it's very easy to make a query to compare results. So I did some poking and prodding, and came up with some surprising results.
I used results from the last few years for all Detroit rooms, as well as Mountaineer since it's just as close.
I have to use a disclaimer. Since these are using a small sample size, the numbers could change drastically if my next session at any room is either +$500 or -$300. But these are the numbers I have, so that what I'm gonna use.
Motor City: 18 sessions (8-10 .444) $248 profit ($13.78 avg)
MGM Detroit: 17 sessions (9-8 .529) $960 profit ($56.47 avg)
Greektown: 13 sessions (8-5 .615) $890 profit ($68.46 avg)
Mountaineer: 38 sessions (24-14 .632) $4014 profit ($105.63 avg)
Well, I was obviously wrong. Looking at these numbers, I have no reason to go back to Motor City, except for the "free room" offers. Greektown seems to be the best results. I know that MGM is also great on weekends, but super tight on weekday afternoons.
And since I've been getting so many "free room" offers from Detroit, I have only been to Mountaineer only a few times in the last six months. That's something that I need to fix.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
A Look Back...
Well, it's New Year's Eve. Traditionally, it's a time when people take a look back at the year that was. So I will do the same.
By The Numbers
Certainly the easiest and most objective way to examine 2008 is to check the numbers, and it was definitely a good year.
CPMG $3394
Cash games: 3064
Tournaments: (+330) 2270 winnings, 1940 buy-in, 53 tournaments, 4 wins
Casino $1383
Poker Cash games: 3340
Table Games: 758
Slots: 120
Video Poker: -1330
Tournaments: (-1505) 800 winnings, 2305 buy-in, 17 tournaments, 1 win
Are You a Better Player?
Another way to measure the success of a year is to ask yourself, "Are you a better player than you were a year ago?"
For me, I would have to say the answer is No. I think my Cash game has made some small improvements. But I feel that my Tournament game has deteriorated a little. I think I've lost some of my patience. I did make money in CPMG tournaments. But just $330 in 53 tournament is not good. I'm definitely not saying that I'm the best tourney player around, but I am good enough to have a better ROI than that.
New Year's Resolutions
- Get better against better opponents.
I think that I am a better player against bad/novice players than I am against good/experienced players. My hand reading skills aren't as good as I want them to be, and bad/novice players are much easier to read. When they raise, it's usually with a big hand.
I also suck at tells and sensing strength or weakness. Bad/novice players give off so many more than good/experienced players.
When I'm at a table of good/experienced players, I feel that I have to wait for a hand. If I don't get any cards, then I have no chance of making money. I'm not very good at 'creating my own shot,' to use a basketball analogy.
I am planning on playing more 2/5 this year, especially in Detroit. Hopefully, this will help to advance my cash game skillz.
- Game Selection in the 'Pit'
The better resolution would be to just stay away from the gambling, and stick with Poker. But that just ain't gonna happen. I actually enjoy it. I do understand that I'm not doing it to make money. I would be content to just break even, and earn comps for rooms and food.
I need to stick with games that are good to sit there and grind it out. Blackjack, Pia Gow and Texas Hold'em Bonus are good for this. I used to play Let It Ride, but have finally learned my lesson. The game is just too high variance to play. It's what I would call a 'Lightning Strike' game. Hit a big hand, then run for door.
Video Poker should be a grinder game. I do know the 'Basic Strategy' for many of the variation of VP. I even carry a cheat sheet for pay tables, so I know which ones to play. But I'm still losing big money on it. I just can't hit anything. I'm not gonna quit playing it (yet), I will do what I just did in Detroit. Play only with Profit, and don't chase my losses by trying to hit Quads.
By The Numbers
Certainly the easiest and most objective way to examine 2008 is to check the numbers, and it was definitely a good year.
CPMG $3394
Cash games: 3064
Tournaments: (+330) 2270 winnings, 1940 buy-in, 53 tournaments, 4 wins
Casino $1383
Poker Cash games: 3340
Table Games: 758
Slots: 120
Video Poker: -1330
Tournaments: (-1505) 800 winnings, 2305 buy-in, 17 tournaments, 1 win
Are You a Better Player?
Another way to measure the success of a year is to ask yourself, "Are you a better player than you were a year ago?"
For me, I would have to say the answer is No. I think my Cash game has made some small improvements. But I feel that my Tournament game has deteriorated a little. I think I've lost some of my patience. I did make money in CPMG tournaments. But just $330 in 53 tournament is not good. I'm definitely not saying that I'm the best tourney player around, but I am good enough to have a better ROI than that.
New Year's Resolutions
- Get better against better opponents.
I think that I am a better player against bad/novice players than I am against good/experienced players. My hand reading skills aren't as good as I want them to be, and bad/novice players are much easier to read. When they raise, it's usually with a big hand.
I also suck at tells and sensing strength or weakness. Bad/novice players give off so many more than good/experienced players.
When I'm at a table of good/experienced players, I feel that I have to wait for a hand. If I don't get any cards, then I have no chance of making money. I'm not very good at 'creating my own shot,' to use a basketball analogy.
I am planning on playing more 2/5 this year, especially in Detroit. Hopefully, this will help to advance my cash game skillz.
- Game Selection in the 'Pit'
The better resolution would be to just stay away from the gambling, and stick with Poker. But that just ain't gonna happen. I actually enjoy it. I do understand that I'm not doing it to make money. I would be content to just break even, and earn comps for rooms and food.
I need to stick with games that are good to sit there and grind it out. Blackjack, Pia Gow and Texas Hold'em Bonus are good for this. I used to play Let It Ride, but have finally learned my lesson. The game is just too high variance to play. It's what I would call a 'Lightning Strike' game. Hit a big hand, then run for door.
Video Poker should be a grinder game. I do know the 'Basic Strategy' for many of the variation of VP. I even carry a cheat sheet for pay tables, so I know which ones to play. But I'm still losing big money on it. I just can't hit anything. I'm not gonna quit playing it (yet), I will do what I just did in Detroit. Play only with Profit, and don't chase my losses by trying to hit Quads.
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