May News & Notes

- Peppermill's New Room is coming along nicely. The photo was taking yesterday morning, along with other photos that are in the Peppermill Review section.

Officially, the opening day is May 10 with 19 tables. I've heard that they are ahead of schedule, and it may open a day or two sooner. I've also heard they're trying to squeeze a few more tables into the room. If you look closely at the photo, you will see a room in the back with the big windows. I heard that will be a separate tournament area, but it looks too small for five or six tables. It may just be a High Limit room for the bigger games.

I don't know if they are planning some Grand Opening event like Greektown did for their new poker room a couple of years ago, or if they're just gonna use the upcoming tournament series. Either way, I will be there on Opening Day, and will give a full report.

- On Friday, I logged on PokerStars to cashout my $259.74, and then uninstalled PokerStars. I waited a few days because I wanted to hear about players receiving their funds, and players were getting their money within two days. I still have around $180 on Cake Poker, but who knows how often I will play online.

- My bad run of cards hasn't really stopped yet, and my bankroll is getting smaller and smaller. I think I hit bottom on Saturday night. I went to the Atlantis to play some PLO-8. There was a list when I arrived, so I sat down for some $3/$6 and dusted off $100 in about an hour. The floor then said they might be opening a 2nd table of PLO-8, so I hung around for a bit. Instead, the opened up another $2/$3 NL table. I sat down with $400. Twenty minutes later, I lost it all. I'm not gonna share the hand because it will sound like a Bad Beat Story, but it was another ridiculous situation.

If things went as bad on Sunday, then I would have to shift into Rebuilding Mode. Fortunately, it was a damn good day. I played in two tournaments. I airballed the Harrah's 10am $45 one, but I did manage to cash in the Peppermill 6:30 $95 Cash Me Out. Unfortunately, it was only a $75 cash for a $20 loss. I usually stay at the Final Table when the tourney chips are converted to cash chips. However, I had a terrible seat draw at this Final Table, so I decided to cash out with the small loss.

The cash games I played on Sunday went much better for me. I won $182 in 2.5 hours playing $1/$2 at Harrah's after the tourney. I then went to the Peppermill to play my first $15/$30 Limit game in a few months, and won $502 in 2.5 hours before their tournament. Hopefully, this was a sign that I'm pulling out of the nosedive that I've been in over the last few weeks.

- And speaking of running bad, we come to sports betting. I don't do it much, because I kind of suck at it. I also know almost nothing about betting baseball. So instead of making the occasional bet during the season, I decided to make one larger season-long bet.

Being from Cleveland, it make sense to bet on them, since they're the team I'm most familiar with. Everyone, including me, expected them to be a minor league team this year. So I was comparing Over/Under for season win totals, and the best I found was 71 wins for Even Money. I bet $200 on the Under.

As of this morning, May 2, they are 19-8 (.704), and have the best record in baseball. They are over 25% of the way to 71 wins, and are just one month in the season. In order for me to win, they need to go 51-84 (.378) for the rest of the season, which means I need to hit a Gutshot on the River.

This whole thing has created a conflict for me. As a fan, I'm happy that things have come together and they are winning. But as a gambler, I'm yelling, "STOP IT!"

So thanks to me, the Tribe will probably win 90 games this year, and make the playoffs. I'm considering making a $500 bet against the Browns, so maybe they'll make it to the Super Bowl.

Rants & Raves: It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

There's an old saying, "Las Vegas is built on implosions." They tear down the old, and build something new. The Dunes was imploded, and the Bellagio was built in it's place. The Stardust was imploded, and the Echelon was built in it's place. (err, nevermind)

On Friday 04/15, the poker world had it's own implosion of the nuclear variety. The US Dept of Justice unsealed 11 indictments against individuals who are running the largest online poker sites that service American players. The charges involve running a online gambling site, and money laundering. The DOJ also started to shut down websites, confiscate IP address that they use, and freeze various bank accounts that sites use. The sites have cutoff Real Money games for US customers, and have stopped all cashouts until further notice.

The story will continue to develop over the next few days and weeks. I've heard that the DOJ wants to shut down Stars and Tilt worldwide. Although, I don't know how they can shut down international companies that are licensed and regulated in other countries. There are some small sites that I think are still open for business, like Cake and Bodog. I'm assuming they're next. There also may be more indictments in the future. None of Team Full Tilt were named, but it's widely assumed that they have some ownership of Full Tilt.

While this certainly was a bombshell, it wasn't a "Bolt from the Blue". The DOJ has been tracking the payment processors and freezing bank accounts for almost two years. Here are three stories about this. Story 1 - Story 2 - Story 3. It was assumed that the events on Friday could happen, but it was not very likely to ever happen.

So how does this affect me directly? Well, not at all. As I've mentioned before, I don't play online poker because it bores the crap out of me. I have around $400 between Stars and Cake, and I have opened up Stars once since I moved out to Reno six months ago. If I ever lost that money, I wouldn't have reloaded, so I'm certainly not worried about it now.

But the effect on other players is much more significant. Someone I played with last night said one of his buddies has $250k on Full Tilt (He played $200-$500 Heads-Up SNGs). Not only do thousands of players have thousands of dollars tied up on Stars and Tilt, but they now have to find some way to pay their bills.

So does this mean there will be a "Brick & Mortar" poker boom? Maybe. I could certainly see some single 21 yr olds moving to a casino town like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, or LA. But a Kid who's used to multi-tabling $5/$10 to $25/$50 6-max will have trouble adjusting to one full table of $2/$5 or $5/$10, and that's only if they have enough money offline to play that high.

One part of Live Poker that will be affected is the Tournament Trail, but I'm not sure how. Online tournament grinders are more likely to start visiting more tournament series. But players who were relying on money from Stars and Tilt don't have that safety net in the form of bonuses and buy-ins. They might not be able to afford playing in larger buy-in tournaments, so they might start playing more preliminary events and satellites, or even just going to smaller tournament series (Hello, H P T). Of course, they could always just move to Canada or Europe, and continue to grind online, even though there will be much less money to win without the US market.

One tournament that will certainly be affected is the WSOP Main Event. On Thursday, it was expected that this year's total would be over 7500 players. Today, I've been hearing wild guesses between 4000 - 5500, since players can't satellite in for just $5 anymore. If the attendance will drop that significantly, is it possible that the WSOP might consider cutting back the schedule of the Main Event to just two starting days? If they only get 4500 players, then why bother having four Day 1 and two Day 2?

Many other parts of the Poker World will be affected by what happened on Friday, mostly because Stars and Tilt were investing money in various forms of marketing. Most notable will be Poker on TV. The NAPT was to start airing on ESPN tomorrow night, and I don't know if that will happen now. High Stakes Poker and Poker After Dark are currently running new shows, and The Big Game has already taped shows that were to start running in June. All of these are paid for by Stars and Tilt. How many of them will actually make it to air is anyone's guess.

Another aspect is the Poker Media, which gets a lot of revenue from poker sites. How many magazines / websites like Card Player and Bluff will be able to continue without that money? Poker podcasts like Ante-Up and The 2+2 Pokercast are sponsored by Stars, so will they still be around? Poker Road was barely hanging on before, and I don't expect them to last past the WSOP.

All other poker businesses will feel the effects, as well. What will happen to Card Runners, Dueces Cracked, and the other training sites? How about a staking business like Sheets & Bax? Yes, they do staking of live players, like WSOP champ Joe Cada, but a majority of their staking comes from online. If most of their money is tied up online, are they willing to increase their risk by staking more live players, or will they just call it quits?

However, after the implosion comes the rebuilding. And that's where Congress comes in to the picture. It's widely assumed that there will be Federal Regulation someday, but the question is When? Personally, I thought that nothing would happen until at least 2013 because of the Presidential Election in 2012. But if there is a super conservative President elected, then it may be much longer than that.

But with the events of this weekend, I'm curious to see if Congress will move sooner. If Congress does try to get things moving, then it will have to be this year because 2012 will be all about the Election. In order for something to happen this year, I would guess that there needs to be significant movement before Memorial Day.

Keep in mind, everything that I said and speculated about could change over the next few days, weeks, or months. Either way, I'm gonna sit back and watch the poker world change around me. It's gonna be a hell of a ride.

Double or Nothing

Even though I'm not a big fan of Online Poker, I have found one thing that seems to be quite profitable for me. Someone in the CPMG was kind enough to point me towards the 'Double or Nothing' Sit-N-Gos on PokerStars.

On the surface, they would seem rather pointless. Ten players enter a $10+$1 tournament, and five of those players 'double up' to $20. That doesn't seem too difficult.

Well, they're not. In fact, they can be rather brainless. Which means you can play more than one at time without much problems.

Ya see, the way you make money in this is volume. You need to win about 60% to make these worth the time. These are high variance games. You need to win some coin flips, and avoid the terrible play that people do, especially on the Bubble.

Here are my numbers:
PokerStars: + $190.80
Total: 59% ~ 71/120
($10+.80) 76% ~ 22/29
($20+1.60) 52% ~ 43/82
($50+4) 67% ~ 6/9

Cake Poker: + $271 (with 33% Rakeback)
Total: 59% ~ 57/96
($10+.80) 68% ~ 17/25
($25+2) 55% ~ 33/60
($50+3.50) 64% ~ 7/11


Here are a few tips from my own experiences:

- Play More Aggressive with Less Chip.
Contrary to common sense, 'folding to the money' is not the right way to play these things. Yes, it will work sometimes, but not often enough to be making any profit. The main reason is because that's how most of the other players are playing. As you know, one of the basic concepts of Poker is, "Do the opposite of what the other players are doing."

The best strategy, in general, is to play more aggressive with less chips, and less aggressive with more chips. At the third level (25/50), start stealing blinds every chance you get. When your stack gets over 2000, then you can ease up on it a little. Over 3000, you can do a little blind stealing just to maintain your stack size. If you're lucky enough to get over 4000, then just play premium hands to knock out shorter stacks. Don't ever hit "Sit Out." You'll be missing out on opportunities to end the tournament.

- Just Play Pre-Flop
Since you start with the standard 1500 chips, you can splash around a little in the first two levels, 10/20 & 15/30. Just don't commit many chips without a 'real' hand after the flop.

From the third level on, only play preflop, just like you would at a Final Table. Raise with your quality hands. Steal blinds in late position. Watch out for the very short stacks, and the players who want to play every hand.

- Bubble Play
Without question, the worst play that I see is at the Bubble. When you get down to six handed, look at who's got the short stacks. There are usually one or two under 1000. If you're not one of them, or very close to them, then wait to see what they do. Usually they will wait until they absolutely have to go All-In. If nobody is under 1ooo, then keep stealing blinds so you don't get short stacked.

If the short stack shoves it in, don't be afraid to call with any two cards under the following conditions. A) You are not the only player calling the All-In. B) Calling the All-In won't leave you as the short stack if he wins.

Remember: It doesn't matter who wins the pot. It only matters who loses. - Always check it down, even if you got a strong hand.

It's not uncommon for some schmuck to bet in to the dry side pot, only to be a bluff. The All-In player then wins the pot, and someone else gets screwed. It happened to me tonight. I would have won the 3-way pot on the Bubble with just A J vs A T, but some moron shoves All-In on the River with just J 3, no pair. I had to fold, and the short stack now triples up with just A high. I was left with a crippled short stack, and end up as Bubble Boy of a $50 tournament.