The Big Poker Question (Or Luck vs Skill II)

First of all, here are my stats from last month's Las Vegas trip. This is a good example of the topic of this post.

Donkaments < $100: 8 tourneys, 3 chops/wins, +$1005, 173% ROI

Tournaments >=$100: 5 tourneys, 0 cashes, -$860

Cash Games: -$104, 18.5 hrs

Pit Play: -$108

2012 was my first losing year as a poker player. There were various factors, including running terrible in Omaha-8 games (-$1187, 66.5 hrs, 26 sessions). I also lost a decent chunk in Pit games (again), although it was a little less than 2011.

But the biggest factor in my losing year was the tournaments, and that's what this post will focus on. Here are the numbers.

Donkaments <$100: 183 tourneys, 49 cashes, 30 wins/chops, +$5438, 43.9% ROI

Tournaments >=$100: 69 tourneys. 6 cashes, 4 wins/chops, -$7466, -46.1% ROI

Interesting Spots In Las Vegas

Since the world didn't end last week, I better get back to blogging.

I documented my entire Las Vegas trip through my Twitter account. But sometimes 140 characters just doesn't do a situation justice. So here's an extended version of some interesting spots.

- Stratosphere 7pm $65 12/07/12

74 runners for this one. We started with 9k chips. This tourney has a decent structure for a donkament, but any donkament with 74 players will become a shovefest long before the Final Table. I did a decent job of building a big stack before the Push-N-Pray started with a few tables left.

When we got down to the last two tables, I was at Table #3, so I was moved to a new table. I had 42500 in the 2k/4k level, which was a little over average.  The player on my right was a 50's gentleman whom we will call Larry, and is on the rather large size (over 350 lbs). He also had a near average stack somewhere around 35k.

Larry was mumbling to me and himself about the great poker that he's been playing. Evidently this happened right before I got to the table, but Larry was quite proud of how he skillfully folded AK from UTG. He said there was too many players to act after him, and it would have been reckless to raise with all those players to still act.

Venetian $150 NLHE

"Shuffle Up & Deal" - This is the 12n $150 daily at the Venetian. We get 12k chips with 30 min levels. The Bravo timer says 54 players. My table has six players with no dead stacks. I'm the youngest at this table by at least five years.

End of Level 1 (25/50) - Timer says 73 players. My table has seven players, and another already busted out. Good table so far, as I'm still the youngest. Table has been on the weak passive side.

The one who knocked out a player is on my Left+2. He seems to be on the looser side, but he could just be catching cards.

I have 12500 chips.

Level 2 (50/100) - Timer shows 90 players. My table has nine players. A Krasian Kid sat down, and was gone ten minutes later. Another Kid sat down on my direct Left, and has been very calm so far.

Las Vegas News & Notes

I arrived home Monday night after spending 6 days in Las Vegas. The official Trip Total was -$67 before expenses. That may seem like it wasn't too bad, but it was a very frustrating and disappointing trip. But more on that in a different post.

I documented my trip via Twitter this time. If you're interested in the details, check out my Twitter page. The whole trip was almost 100 tweets, so you'll need to scroll down a ways before you start reading.

I plan on doing 4 or 5 blog posts surrounding my trip. This one will be News & Notes concerning the poker scene around Las Vegas.

- Starting Monday, December 17, all Caesars' properties will be merging their promotions into one Mega Bad Beat Jackpot, similar to what they do in Atlantic City. It will start at $200,000. The qualifying hand is Quad Aces beaten. As the jackpot grows, the qualifying hand will slowly drop. The jackpot award 10% to the Winner, 20% to the Loser, and 70% to Share across all rooms playing that game. (Not 100% sure on all detail, so don't quote this as fact.)

And when I say all Caesars' properties, that also includes Harrah's Laughlin and Harvey's Lake Tahoe. Also, I assume all other promos (High Hands, Aces Cracked, Free Rolls, etc.) will be reduced or eliminated to fund the Mega Bad Beat. I wouldn't be surprised if Caesars eventually raises the Jackpot to $2 instead of the current $1.

So look for the Mega Bad Beat Jackpot to be near $500,000 during the WSOP.

December News & Notes

- The best phrase to describe my WSOP-C Tahoe trip is "Crash & Burn", as my bubbling the first event was the highlight of my trip.

I played in three Ring Events, an Omaha-8 tourney, and a nightly 7pm tourney. I airballed all five of them. The $1/$3NL game was just as fruitful. I only had one small winning session, and finished -$1167 in 16 hours.

But you need to remember that one trip does not make a career. Even though this year's Tahoe trip sucked, last year's was wonderful thanks to my 5th place finish. Between both years, I've played in eight tournaments, and I'm still up $805.

The WSOP-C raised the rake on all of their tournament for this season, like $345 to $365. Most of the players have been complaining about this. However, Tahoe had record fields for many of their events, so it looks like the higher juice tournaments are here to stay.

- I have one more trip for this year, and it starts on Wednesday. I'm driving down to Las Vegas, and coming back on Monday 12/10. I got a really cheap room at the Imperial Palace ($147 for 5 nights, which includes taxes & fees).

WSOP Circuit $365 NLHE

"Shuffle Up & Deal" - WSOP Circuit at Harvey's Lake Tahoe, $365 NLHE starting at 3pm on Sunday. The Seniors event started at 10am. They had 177 players, and have 86 left.
No clue how many tables, but this should be in the 125-175 range. We have ten seats, but only six bodies. Levels are 30 minutes long, and we get 10k chips.

End of Level 1 (25/50) - We now have nine bodies, and the timer shows 195 players. That is impressive considering the Seniors tourney still has 80 players. This weekend's 2-starting field tournament had 651 entries, and just re-started with 81 players.

This level was a whole lot of nothing for me. The only "real" hand that I looked at was 99 UTG. The average age of this table is much younger than I'm used to playing in Reno, as there are a lot of California players here. There are two Kids on my Left who seem to know what they are doing, so I'm keeping my VPIP is very low. Hopefully, this will set up an image for later.

I have 9325 chips.

November News & Notes

- As you loyal readers have noticed, I haven't been a loyal blogger lately. As I've mentioned before, things just aren't as blog-worthy after 400 entries, especially the day-to-day grind. Special events and road trips are still interesting, and I do have two more trips planned for this year.

Another reason for lack of blogging has been lack of playing. I started dating a young lady named Karen back in August, and that really cut down on my poker. However, that relationship has fizzled out, so I have more time for the tables.

Does that mean I'll be blogging more? Well, like most poker questions, the answer is "It depends." There will be times that I'll be motivated, and times that I won't. I may do three entries in a week, and then go three weeks without a word.

- Just like last year, I'm heading to Lake Tahoe for the WSOP Circuit that starts on Thursday. It's too far away to drive back and forth every night, so I got a hotel room from Sunday to Wednesday, and will be heading home on Thursday.

Chop Pot Classic II

This weekend (Wed 10/24 - Sun 10/28), the Peppermill held another Chop Pot Classic, which is a small tournament series that features mixed games.

As it turned out, I had this weekend off from work (Fri-Sun). I also took two vacation days on Wednesday & Thursday. So you probably assume I played in 7 - 9 of the tournaments with all that free time?

Nope. I only played in three of them, and the main reason for this was the structures of the tournaments.

There was a tournament everyday at 12n and 7pm. All but one of the events had a $130 buy-in ($97 + $33) with 6000 chips. The Saturday 12n had a $235 ($194 + $41) with 8000 chips, which I guess is what they consider a "Main Event".

However, there is a huge difference between some of these tournaments. The 12n tourneys have 30 minute levels, but the 7pm tourneys have only 20 minute levels. I refuse to pay the same juice for a faster tournament, therefore I did not play in any of the 7pm tourneys.

Grinding At Grand Sierra

At work, we have rotating off days, so one week it will be Monday, and the following week it will be Tuesday, etc. I'm starting to use up a few vacation days, mostly at strategic times, like having Monday as my off day and I'll take Tuesday as a vacation day to give me a three day weekend. The following week has Tuesday as my off day, so I'll take Monday as a vacation day.

This past weekend was one of those three day weekends for me. Grand Sierra Resort is currently running their Fall Pot Of Gold tournament series, so this was a good time to grind away at the tournaments. Here's what happened:

Sunday 09/30

~ 12pm $240 NLHE ($15k Guarantee) - They had no problem with the guarantee, as they got an impressive field of 115 players. However, it wasn't impressive for me. I did hang around for awhile, but I never got a real chip stack.

Rants & Raves: The All-In Muck

(Updated 10/02)

Last week, ESPN's WSOP coverage showed the most controversial hand of the Main Event. Here is the Poker News entry in their Live Reporting of the Main Event:

Gaelle Baumann opened for a min-raise to 60,000 from under the gun, and the action folded to Andras Koroknai, who moved all in for what looked like 2 million from the small blind. Gavin Smith folded from the big blind, and thinking that the action was completed, Koroknai mucked his hand.

When he realized his mistake, he pulled back one of his cards, but the other was irretrievable. A floorperson was called to the table, and the dealer explained what had happened. Tournament Director Dennis Jones was called over to make the ruling, and upon hearing the story, he stood silently for half a minute. 

Smith, who was standing next to him, began laughing at the difficulty of the decision. 

After a moment for thought, Jones informed the table that Koroknai would have to forfeit 60,000 chips to Baumann, but that he wouldn't be eliminated completely. 

"Really?" Smith blurted. 

Baumann was also confused with the ruling, so Jones pulled out his iPhone and called Vice President of the World Series of Poker Jack Effel. After a two-minute conversation, Jones hung up, and announced to the table that the original ruling would stand. 

"You're not losing your tournament life," Jones told Koroknai. 

In Jones' explanation to the table, he cited the "integrity of the tournament" as the major factor in the decision. 

According to Smith, Baumann showed two kings.