Hand Of The Day #92

$10/$20 Omaha-8 ~ Peppermill ~ 02.12.12

I'm UTG+1 with As Qs Qh 2d, and raised ($20). Four players saw a Flop of 8c 5c 3c. Not exactly what I had in mind, as I have the Nut Low but just an Overpair for the High. I bet ($10). A Mid player and the Button called, but the BB folded. The Mid is a 60's lady who's playing 9-Card Bingo. She's playing almost every hand, and the first hand I saw her raise preflop was QQ33. The Button is a dealer in this room, and she is a Super-Nit.

Turn [8c 5c 3c] Jd. Once again, all I have is the Nut Low. Since I'm out of position, and have no real hope of a High hand, I checked. The Mid bet ($20), and the Button raised ($40).

For those who like "How Would You Play It?" type hands, this is good spot to ask, what would you do here?

I thought for about 30 seconds, and folded. Mid called, and the River was [8c 5c 3c Jd] Kh. Mid checked, Button bet ($20), and Mid called. Button showed Ac 2c for Nut Nut, and Mid mucked. I didn't see any of the other cards, but I did quietly do a small fist pump as I was glad I folded.

Here's what I was thinking... Mid's bet on the Turn could have been many things, since she's a 9-Card Bingo player. I'm guessing that she probably had a good Flush. However, the Button's raise was the giant, flashing, neon sign that scared me. She's a Super-Nit, and I doubt she would have raised with just the Nut Flush or just the Nut Low. She would need a lock on either the High or the Low, and be really strong on the other one. Yes, she could have had A4c, but I just didn't think she would have raised with that.

Of course, if I had called, then I would have ended up with half of the Low, or a Quarter of the whole pot. But since it was a three player pot, then getting 1/4th of the pot means I would have lost money. By folding, I only lost $30 ($20 with preflop raise, and $10 on Flop).

If I would have cold-called the raise on the Turn, I would have checked and called on the River. That means I would have invested $90 ($20+$10+$40+$20). The pot would have been (Preflop 4x$20+$5) + (Flop 3x$10) + (Turn 3x$40) + (River 3x$20), or $295. (This game isn't raked, as there is a time charge of $6 per half hour.) I would have gotten $75 from half of the Low, or -$15 for the hand.

Occasionally. when do the math for a blog post or crunch some numbers from my database, I get a result I wasn't expecting. This Hand Of The Day was supposed to show that getting quartered means you will lose money, and you should fold if you can see it coming. Instead, folding actually cost me $15. Granted, both numbers are negative, so that does show that "Quartered = Bad".

So why did this anomaly happen? I think it's from the preflop raise. By raising early, it gets extra dead money in the pot, so if I get only half the pot, or even quartered, then I can still make some money in the hand.