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Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Hand Of The Day #87

Harvey's Lake Tahoe - 11.13.11 - $355 WSOP-C #5 Level 4 (50/100)

UTG raised to 400. He's a 30's guy who's been one of the tightest players (or least active so far) at this table. It folded around to me in the BB, and I make the call with J9d.

Flop Js Th 9s. Interesting as I hit Two Pair on a very wet Flop. I check to the preflop raiser, and he bet 1000. I decided to check-raise to 2500. He quickly ships his stack All-In. I have 5800 behind, and he has me covered.

Since this is such a wet board, and he's been fairly tight so far, I didn't insta-call. Instead, I went into deep thought, and try to put him on a hand.

He raised big preflop, bet 'pot' on the Flop, and insta-shipped after I check-raised.

Would he do this with an Overpair? Maybe, but since he's been quiet at this table, I don't know how good he is. Some players with an Overpair would be scared of this Flop. Others would think, "I have AA and I ship." Either way, I'm roughly 70/30 against AA, but only 51/49 against QQ because of the Straight Draw.

How about AK or AQ? With out Spades, it's highly doubtful that he would have even called my check-raise, let alone shoving it in. But AKs or AQs is definitely a possibility. I'm 55/45 against AKs, but 48/52 against AQs because of the extra four Straight outs.

Two Pair is doubtful, as I don't see him raising from UTG with JT or T9.

A Set is certainly a possibility. I doubt he would raise UTG with 99. I don't know if he would have raised with TT, but I only have two outs (11/89) against TT. A Set of Jacks would mean a one-outer hit the Flop, but that does happen. I'm essentially drawing dead against JJ (3/97)

As for a Straight, 87 or Q8 are not hands he would raise preflop with. But KQ is high on the list, and I only have four outs (18/82) against a Straight. But if he had KQs, wouldn't he slowplay it a little?

I thought for almost two minutes. I realized that I'm crushing some hands, flipping against some hands, and drawing very thin against other hands. If I fold, I still have 58BB in a tournament that seems to have a very slow structure.

I ended up folding my hand face up, hoping that he would show his hand. He didn't, and I never did find out what he had.

Since I didn't call the All-In, then should I have check-raised? Probably not. But there are so many cards that could come on the Turn (K, Q, T, 8, or any Spade) that would either kill my action or kill my hand.

Either way, yuck!

I did go on to 5th place in this tourney, so you could say that I made a good fold. But that's looking at results, and that's a bad way to evaluate poker decisions.

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