Rants & Raves: The Future Of Online Poker

With all of the drama-bombs in the online poker world this year, nobody knows what will the future of online poker will be. Here's my opinion on various aspects of the I-Poker topic.

On the Federal level, there are various "experts", including the PPA, who think there is a better than 50% chance of an online poker bill being passed in 2012. Well, I think that number is much closer to 0% for this year due to two reasons. First, the big 2012 Election is looking like it will be rather bloody for many incumbents, so they will want to stay away from anything controversial. Also, Congress is bogged down in the worst gridlock I've ever seen, and aren't capable of passing anything.

So 2013 looks to be the most promising year for federal legislation, but a lot of that depends on what happens in the election. If we get a super conservative President, then you can kiss goodbye any chance of I-Poker passing. It will also depend on which party controls which House of Congress, and who is a leadership position.

The main reason that I-Poker has so little chance of passing Congress is that both parties are against the idea. Yes, there are individuals who are in favor of online poker. Some are in favor of personal freedom (Rep Barney Frank), while others have their own political interests in mind (Sen "Harrah's" Reid). However, I-Poker is against the philosophy of both parties. Republicans believe gambling is a sin, and Democrats want to protect people from themselves.

I know there are many of poker players who keep saying, "But what about the tax revenue that Congress desperately needs?" However, if Congress only cared about generating tax revenue, then marijuana and prostitution would legalized, regulated, and taxed across the country. Remember, we're not talking about logic and reason; we're talking about Congress.

And for those who were upset about the UIGEA being stuck to another bill in order to be passed, that will be the only way that I-Poker legislation will pass Congress. It's not because it has to be hidden and snuck through. That's just how Congress does business. They don't pass hundreds of small bills each year. Instead, they pass 10 - 15 mega-bills that have all the small stuff attached to them.

So what about I-Poker on the state level? Well, given the recent news from the DOJ and the State of Nevada, it's looking much better. Officially, the Nevada Gaming Control Board is getting ready to be the regulatory body when Congress passes I-Poker. But since that doesn't look likely anytime in the next few years, many suspect that Nevada will just go ahead with intrastate online poker. However, that would require the Nevada Legislators to authorize intrastate poker. I would estimate that there is a 60% chance there will be online poker open for business in the state of Nevada by the end of 2012.

Other states are starting to express some interest in I-Poker for their state. But only Nevada, and maybe New Jersey, are likely to be the first one for one simple reason. The other states are scared of being the guinea pig of I-Poker. They are afraid that there could be some problems with it, and they don't want to be the ones who fail. If Nevada tries it, and it works, then other states will slowly start to stick their toes in the water.

(This next paragraph is pure speculation by me. I have not heard this mentioned by anyone, and I could be completely wrong about it.) One of those potiental problems of I-Poker could be with the banks. If a state like Nevada allows intrastate I-Poker, it doesn't mean that the citizens of Nevada will be allowed to use their bank accounts to move money to and from their I-Poker account. Remember, banks are controlled by the Feds, and the UIGEA prohibited banks from allowing transactions involving "illegal gambling". Just because Nevada says that your WSOPonline.com account is legal, that doesn't mean the Feds will bless it. Or maybe the Feds will not say anything, and the banks won't want to risk allowing the transactions. Remember there are state laws that the Feds don't recognize. Medical marijuana is legal in states like California, but the DEA says it is still illegal, and will enforce Federal laws in those states.

So, in theory, it will be at least a year or two after Nevada starts online poker before other states start launching their own I-Poker. And then it will be another year or two after that before smaller states realize they don't have enough population to support the numerous I-Poker sites that want a piece of the pie. So will the states limit the number of potential sites, or will they just let the free market sort it out?

Most poker players are hoping for the 3rd option, which is linking states together to make a larger player base. Naturally, this will need the blessing of various Federal agencies, including possibly Congress, and who knows if that will happen. Although, another possibility could be to have a network-based I-Poker site, and have each state have their own skin on that site. For example, WPTonline.com could have a Nevada skin, an Iowa skin, and New Jersey skin, and a Florida skin. In theory, this is a way the states could have all the fees and taxes they want on their players and the site, and the players could play in a larger base.

So when this hopefully launches later this year in Nevada, will I be playing online? Well, I've mentioned numerous times in the past that I was never a big fan of I-Poker, but I might give it a try. It will greatly depend on various factors, mostly taxes and rake. Will the players have to pay taxes after each session, or each tournament cash? Will the rake be the same for I-Poker as it will be in the casinos, which will most likely be $4+$1? Is it possible to win at .25/.50 NL with $5 removed from each pot?

Another thing to remember about the future of I-Poker is that the new online poker will not be the same as "the good, olde days". For example, there will not be any rakeback offered by Caesers or any other corporation. You will be able to earn Total Reward Points for your next casino visit, but how much can you earn by grinding .10/.20 PLO or $5 SNGs?

Also, will software like Poker Tracker be allowed? You can't use stuff like that for Live Poker, so will they let you use in your home? And what about multi-tabling? Personally, I would be stunned if they allowed more than four tables at a time, and that's a good thing. Too many tables just means the same competent players are spread out across all the tables, while the recreational players will only play on a table or two at a time. This is the main reason that online cash games have gotten so tough over the last few years. Just imagine that you go to your local casino, and see the same competent players spread out at five different tables.

Anyways, this is all just rampant speculation by me. There could be another big drama bomb next week that will make this post meaningless. But that's the nature of I-Poker right now. Nobody really knows what's gonna happen next.