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Sunday, May 13, 2012

1 vs 100

(WARNING: This post contains only analysis of tournament stats. If this isn't something you want to read, then move on to your next blog.)

This week, I played my 100th tournament of the year. A hundred is a nice round number to do some analysis of the stats, so that what I'm gonna do. I'm also including the last 100 tourneys that I played last year, which goes back to April 24th. Each set of 100 will be separate.
(This Year ~~ Last Year)

Under $100
Count: 85 ~~ 63
Wins/Chops: 16 (18.8%) ~~ 12 (19%)
Cashes: 24 (28.2%) ~~ 20 (31.7%)
Bubbles (estimated): 2 ~~ 6
Profit: $2278 ~~ $2977
Profit per Tourney: $26.80 ~~ $47.25
ROI: 43.2% ~~ 69.5%
Cash Outs: $7553 ~~ $7262
Buy-Ins: $5275 ~~ $4285
Avg Buy-Ins: $62 ~~ $68
Avg Entrants: 23.8 ~~ 31.3
Bounty Tourneys: 28 ~~ 12
# of Bounties: 37 ~~ 18

$100 Or More
Count: 15 ~~ 37
Wins/Chops: 2 (13.3%) ~~ 4 (10.8%)
Cashes: 2 (13.3%) ~~ 7 (18.9%)
Bubbles (estimated): 2 ~~ 5
Profit: -$140 ~~ -$755
ROI: -5.4% ~~ -9.52%
Cash Outs: $2440 ~~ $7365
Buy-Ins: $2580 ~~ $8140
Bounty Tourneys: 3 ~~ 1
# of Bounties: 1 ~~ 1

Totals
Under $100 -
Count: 148
Profit: $5255
ROI: 54.9%

$100 Or More -
Count: 52
Profit: -$895
ROI: -8.3%

Overall -
Profit: $4360
ROI: 21.5%
Best Streak: 6 cashes in 8 tourneys, +$1910
Worst Streak: 2 cashes in 29 tourneys, -$1175

(About the numbers... The Bubble stat is just an estimate, as I don't keep track of that specific stat. I didn't include as many stats for the $100+ column because of the small sample size and the stats have a rather large range. The Buy-Ins ranged from $115 to $1500, and the Entrants ranged from 6 to 2550).

To me, the most glaring stat is the Profit Per Tourney, which is down over $20. So the natural question is Why?

Well, the tournament scene in Reno has been deteriorating over the last few months, as I've mentioned various times. The Avg Buy-In and Avg Entrants are lower, as the bane of $45 donkaments continues to spread across this town. The lower buy-ins mean that the rake is a larger percentage of the buy-ins, and the lower turnouts for evening donkaments means smaller prizepools for me to win.

Of course, it could also be normal variance. My Best Streak and Worst Streak were during this period, and were almost back-to-back. The 6/8 streak was in the middle of January, and the 2/29 stretch was from the late January to early March. Certainly, going 2/29 will have some affect on a sample size of 100 tournaments.

As for the $100+ column, it's disappointing that both numbers are negative, but I'm not that concerned about it. It's a relatively small amount, considering the buy-ins. Hell, the -$140 for This Year is a buy-in.

I agree that I need to improve in the bigger tournaments, but that will be difficult living in Reno. Bigger tourneys only happen during a tournament series, and I'm usually working through those. The only daily donkament is the $115 on Saturday afternoons at the Peppermill. I work on Saturdays, and from what I've heard through the grapevine, that tourney has only gotten 13-16 players in the last few weeks. I doubt the 'Mill will keep running that tourney from much longer.

But the main thing that these numbers point out is that grinding the daily donkaments is still the most profitable activity for me in Reno. Although, my $1/$2NL numbers are improving this year. (17 sessions, 13-4, +$1363, 33 hrs)

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