Rants & Raves: The November Nine

On Saturday, November 6, the World Series of Poker resumes after it's four month hiatus.

For the record, I've always hated the concept of the November Nine. I think it's a "Wag the Dog" stunt so ESPN can get better ratings. I know it's supposed to help promote Poker, and it gives the nine player more opportunities for sponsorships. But, to me, it affects the outcome of the tournament. Momentum and game flow are big factors in a tournament. Do you think Jerry Yang or Jamie Gold would have won if they had to come back four months later? Do you think Phil Ivey would have won last year if he could have played the next day?

Since were almost done with the third November Nine, I want to see if it has delivered on what was expected. First is the sponsorship opportunities for the nine players. Jeffery Pollack, former Commissioner for the WSOP, said that he hoped "the nine players would come to the Final Table looking like NASCAR drivers, covered with patches and logos." There was some of that the first year. But none of those patches were from Pepsi, Budweiser, Ford, Burger King, or any other "mainstream" companies. All of them were from companies in the Poker industry, like CardRunners or Card Player. And the second year had noticeably less patches and logos. What will happen this year remains to be seen.

And has the November Nine been a boom for Poker? Well, the number of players at the Main Event has grown in each of the last three years, but it was growing before that. The only drop off was due to the passage of the UIGEA in 2006, but they're almost back to the 8000 range.

The most important numbers to look at are the ratings for ESPN, since this is their baby. The ratings for the first year, 2008, were awesome for a Poker show. In 2009, when Phil Ivey was one of the November Nine, it was expected to have even bigger ratings. Instead, they were actually down 7% from the previous year. This year, the rating are already down 16% over last year.

Because of the declining ratings, I'm going to make a bold prediction: Either next year, 2011, or the following year, 2012, will be the last year for the November Nine. Now it's possible that there will continue to be some sort of delay, and that it might not exactly go back to how it was in 2007, when they played the Final Table then next day. But the current concept of the November Nine will change. If ESPN isn't getting the ratings, then they will not be going along with it.

As for some bold prediction for this year, like who's gonna win... To be honest, I haven't been watching the coverage. Partially because I was a little busy moving across the country, and now I'm a little busy actually playing Poker. Another factor is that I'm bored with Poker on TV. It's gotten stale for me.

Although, I listen to a lot poker podcasts while delivering the mail, so I do know who is in the November Nine. I have no clue who's gonna win. I think it's wide open this year.

But I will make one prediction for 2010. I think this will be the fastest Final Table in many years. First, since the November Nine Bubble lasted six hours, the blinds are a little high right now.

Second, all but one of the Nine are Pros, either Live or Online. I really doubt any of them will be interested in "Folding their way to 4th Place". I also don't think they will be as scared of The Grinder as last year's table was scared of Ivey. I expect the Play of the table to be similar to last year after Ivey busted out; a lot of 4-Betting and flipping coins because they now have the Pot Odds.