Hand Of The Day #52

Greektown Casino - 09.06.10 - 11am $75 Tournament Level 1 (25/50)

First hand of the tournament with 4k starting stacks. Hyjack (60's Lady) raises to 225. I'm the Cutoff, and call with A9s. UTG also calls. Flop 8s 6c 4s. UTG checks. Hyjack bets 775.

My turn. Since this is the first hand, I have no info on this player. But she's a 60's Lady, she raised rather large preflop, and bet Pot on the Flop. This smells like AA or maybe KK. I do have the Nut Flush Draw, and maybe an Overcard (but I doubt it). I'm not getting the Pot Odds for just one card. But if it hits on the Turn, I have a hunch that she will pay me off. Not necessarily all of her chips, but I could get a Value Bet of 800 on the Turn, and maybe 1000 on the River. So I call the 775.

Now for the Big Surprise of this hand... UTG check-raises All-In. Naturally, the Hyjack also ships it All-In. UTG is a Kid who I played Cash with before the tournament. He plays and talks like an Internet player. He made a big check-raise with Pair + Flush Draw in the Cash game. But since he's UTG in this hand, I would think his range is a little tighter. Obviously, a Set is likely. But he could have anything like TT for an Overpair, 77 or 55 for Pair + Straight Draw. Maybe some Suited Connector like 86h for Two Pair, 76s for a big Combo Draw, or even 75d for a Straight.

Anyways, I need to call 3000 to win 9075. With 3-1 Pot Odds, I'm certainly getting the right odds to call, but that means putting all of my chips at risk on Hand #1. If I fold, I've still got 3000 left which I can still work with. If I call and lose, then maybe my seat in the Cash game is still open. If I call and win, then I start Hand #2 with 12000 chips, and will probably make it to the Final Table (assuming that I don't get screwed later).

I finally decided to "Go Big, or Go Home", and make the call. The Cutoff shows AA. UTG shows Q7s for a Flush Draw + Gutshot. The Turn and River were [8s 6c 4s] 3d 3c. The Lady wins 12k chips, and I head back to find a seat in the Cash game.

What I'm about to say isn't me being bitter, because I knew that I was gambling with my call. But the Kid's play with Q7s was just horrible. I understand what he was thinking...

"I have good equity with Flush Draw + Gutshot (47%). By shoving All-In, that will create Fold Equity. If she folds even 30% of the time, that will make this a profitable play."

The problem with this thinking in Live games instead of the Internet is that there is no Fold Equity. She will never fold, and that's not because I saw her AA. I said earlier that it was rather obvious that she had AA or KK. That was why I just called the 775 with my Flush Draw + possible Overcard.