Hand of the Day #10

1/2 NLHE - MGM Detroit - 11.22.09

A few limpers, and I check in the BB with QTc. Flop is Qd Th 4d. Ya gotta love a Big Blind Special. I lead out for $11. UTG calls. UTG+2, a 60 yr old Eastern European lady, raises to $22.

It folds back to me. The old lady has been playing just like an old lady. She could just have AQ, or maybe something bigger, or maybe just a great draw like KJd. I don't want to call, be out of position, and let UTG hang around. Plus, I need more information. I raise to $75. UTG folds. Old Lady instantly says All-In for $252.

OK, now I really go into deep thought. I do something the poker geeks like to call Structured Hand Analysis. Basically, I go though all the possible hand that she could have, and then see how those hands do against my top two pair.

Flop is Qd Th 4d

Draws: KJd, ATd, AJd - The nice thing about playing against "Old Casino Nits" is that they all play the same. I have occasionally seen them raise with a draw. Usually it's a big combo draw, like KJd would be here. But, they would never shove All-In like this. They have never heard about the concept of Fold Equity. If this were against some 22 yr old with a Full Tilt hat on backwards, then this would be a strong possibility.

One Pair: AA, KK, AQ - There was no raise preflop, so AA and KK are unlikely. AQ is possible, but unlikely. Earlier in the session, I saw her barely call an All-In with top Two Pair. So shoving with just top Pair is doubtful.

Two Pair: QT, Q7, T7 - I doubt she is playing Q7 or T7. QT is certainly possible.

Set: QQ, TT, 44 - With no preflop raise, QQ is unlikely. She would limp with TT, but that means a one-outer hit the Flop. 44 is definitely a possibility here.

Random Bluff - Absolutely no chance of that happening in this situation.

So the most likely hand here is 44, followed by QT and TT. Two of those hands have me crushed, and the other one I am just getting my money back.

After about 90 seconds of thought, I do the only option that I have. I turn my cards over, and throw them into the muck face up. I showed my hand because Old Casino Nits love to show their big hands. She proudly shows her hand, 4h 4c for Bottom Set. Everyone at the table was amazed with my laydown. "You're a great player. I would have never folded that."

However, I was calling myself an idiot. Instead of raising her $22 to $75, I could have made it $50. I would have gotten the same information, and saved $25. Yes, I did save $177 by folding. But $20 here and $25 there really adds up over time.

Nice Hand, Sir.